Here is their Web Page for added info:
ica.com.mx
ica.com.mx
Your system seems to be the only way to successfully invest in Mexico/Latin America.
In spite of the growth, which will no doubt continue, the danger of devaluations and political instability adds to the risk aspect of these investments, that is, in addition to the normal risks of business. (i.e. competition, labor relations, customer acceptance of the company's product etc. etc.).
Your strategy requires a tremendous amount of patience, and indeed timing. In addition, the expected return would have to cover the potential of a future devaluation which remains a constant.
In this case, since the company is Mexican, the focus would be in Mexico.
Typically you want to follow the Presidential elections (every 6 years), which will increase the chances of sudden devaluations.
In the last elections when Zedillo took power, many people became extremely upset (in 1994), because no-one was expecting such devaluation in Dec 20, 1994, so early, which was in a way, parting from the mold.
So long you are capable of following the political arena and the status of the amount of hard currency reserves, then you should be in a fair position to benefit of the usually above average returns... (given the added risk exposure).
The key, as you have pointed out is catch these monsters after they have been devaluated/slashed/washed out/whatever...
Investing in LatAm, is similar to chasing Tornados.... the greatest rewards you will get when the storm just ravaged the landscape, then start picking the [somehow] strong survivors.... close your eyes, and hope for the best.
Lastly, the political landscape in Mexico has become much more unpredictable because of the real competition that the former Monarchy, (The House of PRI), is now facing from the PAN, (conservatives), the PRD (Socialists), and the other collection of collectivist that on their own do not represent any danger, however, collectively, take away votes from the PRI.
The above are the true contenders for political power... an incredible pandora's box that only now are we all learning what the new meaning will be of elections in Mexico.
Here is a little history about the many political parties in Mexico.... a true circus of the absurd. (Spanish only)
www2.acorn.net
The reason I am pointing out all of the above is because these aspects are as important, (if not more important), than the fundamentals of the company...
ICA, (although a publicly traded company, is "private" in terms that it is not owned by the government) is tied to many government funded projects.
In addition, ICA has now entered markets in the US, ASIA and Europe
This obviously lessens the risk... but still...
Good luck. |
