Individual consumer perception on AMZN
Pete Lynch is famous for saying buy what you know and understand. Great investments can be made by following this principle.
I do know that I have never seen a company, online or otherwise, with the consumer-centric focus of AMZN (save perhaps DELL 4 or 5 years ago, before it got as big as it is now). I never cease to be amazed by the "little things" that AMZN does so well.
The latest example for me is a pending order I have with AMZN- I changed my credit card account #, and AMZN sent me a polite email notifying me that the account # had changed, and that they would need updated info. 9 out of 10 companies would have simply dropped the ball on this, and sent me through a series of disembodied telephone customer prompts AFTER screwing up my order.
Hey, call it Amazon.bomb, call it whatever you want, this company is a winner, and they have my business and the loyalty of many others as well because they execute their customer-centric business model better than anyone else.
The barriers to entry are many-fold, and do not underestimate the difficulty of setting up an organization infrastructure that is solid as the one AMZN has.
I have put my money where my mouth is- just bought more AMZN. As the summer progresses, the present day (illogical and incorrect) paroxysms of worry over the CPI will resolve, and this stock will again rise.
Here is a nice overview from GNET thread re: interest rate worries:
The market has over-discounted a hike in interest rates. Today's employment number puts a real dent into those that say rate hike is inevitable.
Although hourly wages went up by .1% this by itself is not enough to push up interest rates. You have to look at overall picture:
- Factory orders were down 1%
- Construction took biggest plunge in 3 years 3%
- Nonfarm payrolls weakest since 1996
- leading indicators were up just .1%
- oil has plunged from $18.50 per barrel to $16.50
- gold has been dropping.
- commodity prices are falling.
- although NAPM came stronger jobs report says this sector is weak.
Last month PPI came very weak and same will be this month.
CPI will come in at .2% increase. The CPI jumped last month on two factors:
- 30% jump in oil prices in 1 month. Since then oil has dropped.
- spike in cigarette prices to pay lawsuits. No more increase in May.
To obtain further confirmation that jobs report is positive the 30 year bond is stable and did not penetrate 6%.
This means that it is a buying opportunity as more and more people will become convinced that there will be no hike on June 30. |
