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One thought to share that is indirectly in response and that is that SMART MONEY BUILDS POSITIONS. They do that because they are rich and can think long term. Trading and scalping experts only get rich if they are running the markets themselves which we are not in a position to do and which, in any case, takes too much time to be worth it unless that is your full time profession. So the real work comes in the beginning in deciding what to build your position in and then in buying in your buy zone as you can afford it. Furthermore, smart money does not spread itself too thin. Buffett only owns 6 stocks..six and he can afford anything he wants. Why? So he can know what is going on. As I quoted recently, "he who chases two hares catches neither". So the bet here is that we will have found something BEFORE the big boys catch on and WANT it. AEC qualifies as BIG and therefore the answer to your question is that it will be meaningful if our initial assessment, namely that this is a field of large economic value, is correct and, as you correctly said, that management handles the project properly in every way. Even the best project can be blown if management mismanages and misjudges the moves necessary. We must give them credit for as you said still having a heartbeat. Furthermore, they have recruited technical people with top credentials and great connections. Perhaps anyone reading this will say that in fact this has best been handled as a trading vehicle, that I have done that myself, and that I am contradicting my own behavior. The reason for that is that while I believe that basically this should be handled as something to accumulate for the big hit, it ran away from what it was worth multiple times in the past and it seemed wiser to trade it out at that time. The important thing is not to be out of it when it really becomes an oil and gas company with deals, earnings, a web page, a widely followed story and above all when the majors start to believe what some of us already believe about it's economic potential and investors discover it. One must own it now not later when the thread becomes popular and the price is in dollars not pennies. |
