Ten, interesting that Neff thinks Y2K effects on stocks should be peaking now. I have also considered this the biggest potential downer for '99, but had it pegged for much later in the year, like late Q3, early Q4. I mean, won't those that believe the Yardeni's of the world get more paranoid as we get closer to 1/1/00, and the great computer freeze? Gotta go off and think some more. Wonder what Gartner thinks.
Tony
<Y2K Impact. As noted, we excluded 1995 from the analysis because of the
aberrant impact of Windows95 that year. Y2K could have a similar impact this
year thus leading to non-typical results. This is possible but, as we have discussed
previously, we believe that the impact of Y2K on stocks should peak around now
owing to the maximum uncertainty but that any impact should diminish over the
course of the year as visibility increases. As an aside, we would note that Y2K
seems to be the dominant concern with investors at this point, but we think it is a
"time capsule" issue, i.e., one that goes away with time and thus reduces its impact
on stock prices.> |
