Patrick
First, let me state this up front, because I hear way too much bull-shit on some of the other threads. I decided to post my comments on this thread for the simple reason that I wanted to share some ideas or thoughts about this stock specifically after what has been happening lately. I am not intersted in getting into a pissing match with anyone. I own a considerable position in this company, and plan to add if weakness continues.
Patrick your comments were bang on. Let's face facts, there is a civil war going on in Zaire, which undoubtably will lead to bloodshed. There are as many proponents as there are detractors for boh Kabila and Mobutu. However, one thing does seem clear and that is that there are too many African countries around Zaire that have a vested interest in what happens to Zaire. I "BELIEVE" sooner or later a peace conference will take place and that Mobutu will finally realize that he has lost his strangle hold on Zaire. Once that occurs, the rest for Panorama should fall into place.
Why do I say that?? Let's not forget that the deal that Panorama has struck with GECAMINES is a very fair deal. Even though they have control, ie. 51% vs. 49% for the Gov't., the Gov't gets the larger part of the profits, due to an additional 1.5% royalty fee on profits. If we just think of the way most deals are structured, the gov't rarely gets that much (After much BS and corruption, the Indonesians got less than 45% of BRE-X). Therefore whoever takes ultimate control of the country and GECAMINES for that matter, should agree with the fairness of this deal.
Let us also not forget that it may cost close to $120MM to $190MM of financing to do this thing right. If there is a bloody civil war, whoever comes out victorious will not have the financing availale and will be begging for any type of cash flow that they can get. I believe Panorama is well positioned with the deal they struck.
Lastly, I have been speaking with Allan Crawford, who is a Director at Panorama, and yes they do see the risks in Zaire, and that's why they continuously search for other properties. However, if you want my opinion, they'd be better served picking up as much property in Zaire now that everyone thinks that this is the worst place to invest in. Sooner or later, things will change, and we all know that Zaire is by far one the richest countries in the world when it comes to natural resources.
I would welcome anyone's thoughts or opinions.
Chaz
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