Berney, dey's a number of ways of looking at this.
1. the market made a 4 year cycle bottom in October, and subject to
corrections or serious downdrafts along the way, the 3 year trend is up. The odds favor this scenario, because it has happened
over and over again, for decades.
2. it didn't. for whatever reason. it could be that green guy lowered rates prematurely, to bail out capital guys, it could be y2k, it could be "overvaluation", though I think that is not that definitive.
3. If 1 is true, we could be having a hangover from a strong Oct 98
bottom. You can look at the first leg of 90-91 for an example of that
4. I find it incredible that with the recovery that we have had, the 1%
ema of a-d has not gone over zero. That, to me, is a warning. If it shoots back above zero, I'm a bull in a heartbeat.
5. Long term, in terms of five years or more, the market will reflect
the globalization of world economies. More people, all over the world,
will be participating. That is what the high p/e's are anticipating.
6. the actual globalization has had a slow start, primarily because the
people of these countries are set in their ways, and don't want to adapt. The good news is that the kids that were teenagers when this
all started are not hung up about that, and are not prejudiced by the former ways of their countries. And so they are slowly improving their countries as they come into working age.
p.s. none of the above has anything to do with our markets Monday, or further, in the short term.
Vitas
|
