While I continue to be a long term bull on HLIT and technology stocks in general, I will go out on a limb again and reiterate my summer-term sell recommendation.
I will be watching this stock carefully over the next week or two, and if I'm wrong, I'll admit it and jump back in. But I think we're in for some serious market declines over the next two or three months.
What I see here is the classic second chance to sell at the top (I got out on May 18th at 55). It has nothing to do with HLIT's great fundamentals, which you all have described with admirable detail and clarity.
It's simply that HLIT, and tech stocks in general, are overpriced against a near-6% long bond. Lost in today's upside party was the fact that the bond traders are unimpressed: they raised rates. That's bad.
I trust the bond market much more than the stock market to tell me what the rate outlook is, and right now it's not happy. And I believe that interest rates, more than anything else, will dictate what happens this summer.
What I am seeing in techs in general is deliberate, disciplined, methodical selling, punctuated by explosive upswings that don't quite make up the lost ground: the classic bear pattern in my book. We'd have to break this pattern decisively for me to change my outlook.
The last 45 minutes of today looked a whole lot like an engineered short squeeze. I expect more of it in the first hour on Monday. Like I said, a gift horse selling opportunity.
Remember, we've gone from 8 to 55 in 9 months. (Wow!) We haven't had a significant correction in HLIT in all of that rise (again, Wow!). So I will definitely be back, but at a much lower price, I hope.
And if I'm wrong, I'll have missed a few points but saved a lot on antacid.
Tony |
