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There are far too many posts to wade through, so if my opinions have been covered before -- I apologize. First, stock market moves RIGHT NOW, are all about perception. It's that simple. The perception is that the FED WILL raise interest rates. So the market -- in general -- will continue to trend down until (1) data proves that inflation is NOT a problem; important data shows the economy is slowing; (3) interest rates are raised; or the FED lowers its bias. And this trending will likely continue even if the market gets punished more than most of us can tolerate. Why? Because the major market players need an impetus to take their large positions. And the impetus will come directly from the FED. And right now, the perceive that a hike is coming. That doesn't mean stocks won't be trading in ranges. They probably will. But we could see some lower highs and lower lows in the meantime. Internet stocks will be especially vulnerable because they are perceived as overvalued. The brokerage houses will try (are trying) to foist "cyclicals" on their retail clients to keep their machine rolling. Like it or not this is the environment we find ourselves in now. It will change soon enough. But it hasn't changed yet. Second, some stocks will be strong (or weak) enough to diverge from the market pattern. If ATT is forced by the judiciary to open the pipes to AOL and others, AOL WILL diverge and rally fiercely because shortsellers will not want to chance getting caught in a strong rally -- regardless of what the rest of the market is doing. And remember, there are about 50 million shares shorted in AOL. AOL has corrected enough so that the smarter shortsellers won't want to chance the profits they already have (and they are quite sizable)...and AOL has thus far shown no real signs of breaking under 105. In the meantime, ATHM will suffer. Third, ATT WILL appeal the Oregon ruling. And though it may only involve one district in one state, the appeal will likely get some serious scrutiny from the appellate court and -- if asked -- the Supreme Court MAY even decide it wants to be heard on the issue, too. Lot of uncertainty here. But, rest assured, if the Supreme Court rules against ATT (and I am not arrogant enough to presume to know what the Supreme Court will or will not do), the effects will be far greater than if the FTC or FCC were to act on their own authority. Personally, I will be trying to get my hands on the docket to see if there are issues the court may like to hear. But until that time, shortsellers may not want to "chance" a ruling against them which will likely vault AOL to new highs. I'll stop here...for now. All, jmo. |
