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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials

AMAT 230.17

-1.4%

Nov 7 9:30 AM EST

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To: shane forbes who wrote (30738)	6/5/1999 12:19:00 PM
From: Katherine Derbyshire	Read Replies (2) of 70976

Now that I'm reunited with my library, a few numbers regarding capex and ASP correlations. (Serves me right for starting an argument before I go on vacation...) My sources are ICE, IC Insights, and WSTS. ASP growth numbers before 1982 and capex growth numbers before 1990 were read from a chart, and are not accurate to within more than 5% or so, but the trend is pretty clear. I'm sure more precise numbers are available from the same sources, but I'm not motivated to track them down for this discussion. ASPs are in US$, Capex is for worldwide merchant semiconductor companies and is in millions of US$. The correlation is clearest when one plots ASP growth vs. capex growth. Katherine Year ASP ASP growth Capex Growth 1978 -15% Capex 0% 1979 40% 10% 1980 55% 30% 1981 15% 10% 1982 $0.95 -15.00% -5.00% 1983 $0.96 1.00% 45.00% 1984 $1.01 5.00% 85.00% 1985 $0.96 -5.00% -20.00% 1986 $1.00 4.00% -25.00% 1987 $1.09 9.00% 20.00% 1988 $1.32 21.00% 60.00% 1989 $1.39 5.00% 3.00% 1990 $1.28 8.00% 5.00% 1991 $1.35 6.00% 12645 -10.00% 1992 $1.51 12.00% 11375 -10.00% 1993 $1.75 16.00% 15385 35.00% 1994 $2.17 24.00% 22805 48.00% 1995 $2.68 24.00% 39710 74.00% 1996 $2.40 -10.00% 42765 8.00% 1997 $2.10 -12.50% 36000 -15.80% 1998 $1.86 -11.00% 26400 -26.67%

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