Allan, I would characterize myself as fully invested, but concerned and keeping a watchful eye open. Joe Kennedy said in 1928 "only a fool holds out for the last dollar", so maybe I fit in that category.
As for the "nuts", I have made some nice money in them this year myself, including DCLK, MRBA, CMGI, ADFC, NPNT, and but mostly my own offbeat play, AXC. I still have positions in CMGI, ADFC, NPNT, and AXC. However I have taken far more off the table than my original investments, and so I am risking only profits.
I recognize that even if a company grows at 100% a year for 5 years, and earns net income of 15% after 5 years, a PSR of 100 today will translate to a PE ratio of 42 in 5 years if the stock price remains unchanged for 5 years. In order for that stock to increase at 20% a year during the next 5 years though the PE in 5 years would have to be over 100. Therefore from today's levels the chances of earning in excess of 20% a year over a 5 year period are pretty low, in my opinion. However, we each make our own investment decisions, and I wish you luck.
Carl |
