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Technology Stocks : VALENCE TECHNOLOGY (VLNC)
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To: Zeev Hed who wrote (11824)6/5/1999 5:24:00 PM
From: William Epstein  Read Replies (3) of 27311
 
Zeev;

The stock is in a coiled spring configuration and has been for some time. However, from a fundamental point of view the announcement or announcements we are all expecting may take longer than we hope. My best guess is that VLNC won't be ready to produce in real quantity for another 6 weeks -3 mos. One good reason for this guess is that they are looking for a purchasing manager. Looking at it from an employer's point of view they know that it will take at least 6wks to line up the candidates and hire the person they want. They also know it will take about 6 wks. to bring him up to speed. That is a good indication of their own time line for production. They're are busting their engineers' nuts to get the lines working and will be all summer. Then by Sept. They will be ready for full scale production. They may still get the commitments earlier and get one line going now and then bring the others on stream later. In fact, that is what is probably happening. This is my best guess but based on previous experiences in getting factories running, it always takes more time than planned even, for the most experienced managers.

I want to emphasize that this is a real world, fundamental view. P.O. can come at any time and the stock, who knows? However, why would a customer commit until he is sure that they can produce and deliver with reasonable assurance?
Bill
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