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Strategies & Market Trends : Buffettology

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To: James Clarke who wrote (1557)	6/5/1999 7:39:00 PM
From: Shane M	Read Replies (1) of 4691

Jim, On Disney: I'm also watching it but not buying currently. There are lots of question marks in my mind. I'm one of the people who believes the internet changes everything for media outlets. ABC: I'm negative on the longer term outlook for mass media outlets. The internet is clearly preferable form of entertainment for many as shown by the declining network viewship. Growth of cable and niche programming is also diluting viewership. I see no reason that the long term trend shouldn't work against ABC, but Disney resources should be able to create new programming to fill niche markets. Discovery channel is a good example. ESPN: Has been a strong performer. Recently I've found the Fox Sportsouth competitive offering to be a a strong alternative to "Sportscenter," but otherwise I honestly I don't think ESPN is at much risk. Their pricing power with cable companies is one example of their importance within the cable lineup. Theme Parks: Don't know alot there, but I haven't seen anything close to the quality of entertainment Disneyworld can provide. Movies: I don't see any particular advantage here except in children's titles. The children's entertainment titles should provide annuitylike income into the future. Whether they can they continue to develop "hits" in the future - I don't know. But they'll have probably a better chance than anyone. Pixar will be in on the mix now. Does anyone think Disney has an opportunity to leverage its stable of older characters in future new theatrical releases (New movies - not just re-realeases of existing films)? Goodwill - in the past you've mentioned the large amount of goodwill on the books due to ABC purchase. We should all probably remember to take that into account. CEO Eisner is seeming to increasingly be a liability to the company - running off a lot of top talent - and ending up having to pay them huge amounts of money in the process. I'd be somewhat disgusted with this if I was currently a shareholder. Bottom line: I guess I start to get real interested in DIS in the low $20s. Under $20 and I'm almost certain to be nibbling (at least). Mentally, I'd think $20 could be an area that alot of investors begin to target as the "cheap point.' Shane

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