Gents;
Robert, many thanks for the article on seasonality. It was a "cut n paster".
Lawrence, SEG high end still looks very strong. I would suggest that market segment is strong all over and agree with Yogi that corporate storage is in a boom at the moment. But we better watch the fed. They do hold a cold bucket of water. By the way, I also agree with your comment about only needing one to go away.
Marty, I think div from Yahoo has it wrong. He forgot to mention where he thought SEG was in terms of margin on U4. I think they make money. He is right to point out that much of the price pressure has come from Samsung. Their pain threshold seems endless. But they were backed into a corner. How long will they go is what I want to know.The issue isn't can or can't. If they decide to they can go on almost forever. (An understanding of Samsung's history in the monitor business is a help here.)
Mark,Z; While HTCH is an agreed upon investment do not discount the competition. There will be announcements in the next quarter or two that will suggest Seagate (and possibly another biggie) will be going off in another direction. This leaves IBM, Maxtor, WDC (who cares) squarely in the TSA quarter. Fujitsu, as we all know is vertical and will stay vertical, no biz for HTCH with them, though at one time I believed there may have been something brewing there. Summary: HTCH isn't the slam dunk we have postulated here but I am still aboard.
All; as to appliances shifting away from on-board drives, and eliminating complexity, etc etc, I do not believe for a second that this means diminishing shipments of disk drives. Recent technology announcements have re-set the bar on the so-called paramagnetic limits. There simply is no other technology out there that will come close in the next decade or more. Look to IBM's ultra small DDs for a clue to what to look for. Also look to on-board smarts to do a Yeoman's task of addressing the complexity issues Paul brought up (rightfully). Another clue, look for EMC's hegemony in the corporate sector to be heavily challenged (if we could say it isn't already)in the upcoming year or two (as if anyone looked that far when picking a stock anymore).
Personal note: I am still going to be a bit flaky in terms of frequency of posts. Much going on these days. But I will always be reading. I am passing my "string" on to Yogi along with a big black cigar. <G>
Last Note: Yogi: short SEG? Quantum DD die? You must be joking.
Best,
Stitch |
