3DFX Message Board - Msg: 9990800

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Technology Stocks : 3DFX

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To: Yeagher who wrote (13131)	6/6/1999 3:57:00 AM
From: Patrick Grinsell	Read Replies (3) of 16960

Yeager, it doesn't matter what 3dfx has planned to come next... Remember, just because a company releases a graphics card with what _they_ call "geometry acceleration", doesn't mean that it can seriously compete with "Rampage" or "Napalm" or whatever it's called this week. I think long term investors who don't have inside info (me hehe) are hoping (gulp) that 3dfx will once again blow away the competition. I'm still waiting for Glaze3d...and PowerVRSG...and Permidia3. All those card sounded good when they were announced. PowerVRSG in particular was supposed to wipe the floor with the competition. Sharky even declared the death of 3dfx after seeing it. The question isn't whether they can attempt to do something cool (3dfx has already stated they have stuff specifically for gamers coming up), it's whether they are actually able to do it. The more crap they add, the more complicated the chip. The more complicated the chip, the harder it is to design. The harder the design, the greater chance of delay or outright failure. If 3dfx tries to go too far with their design they may shoot themselves in the foot. In an industry where cycle times are six months this is a very scary thought. Someone over on Yahoo! mentioned that if NV10 gets delayed until 2000, TNT2 will be NVIDIA's only chip for this year. Yep. They'll totally miss the holiday buying season. It seems to me that 3dfx has to maintain a tightrope balance between time to market and functionality. I think they learned their lesson with Banshee. Ballard admits they made some wrong moves there. I guess it's trial by fire from here on out and we'll see if they made the smart decisions and learned from past mistakes. Pat

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