Donald; I have to agree with you, I know there are times I do a one
liner, mostly it's when I'm rushed and put there as bait to see
what type of reacting it may or may not get..& looking to see if
any one else got the same take I did.
By an large I think most of my post are to wordy , and go on to
much.
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As to the gut or emotional factor of the market
What Heinz said the other day really impressed me.
In case anyone missed it.
the truth of the matter is that
absolutely *nobody* knows what these stocks are worth, or if in fact they are worth anything at all. they epitomize a basic fact that runs through all stock market trading, namely emotion. these stocks trade on emotion alone, since there cannot possibly be a useful
consensus on the fundamental facts (to say that the internet 'changes everything' is essentially meaningless). and this is what makes the group so important to the stock market overall, it's being the ultimate representative of emotion. imo there is no chance
for the market as a whole to find a bottom before this group does. most analysts woefully underestimate the internet sector's importance; it's *the* emotional barometer of the market.
The health of a mania surely depends on the health of the most manic sector. thus one of the most important questions before us is whether positive momentum can return to this group or not. if not, the market will be in big trouble indeed.
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I added the bold to the above, full post is.
Message 9893917
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Well not many days before he posted that I had started jumping
on the real time quotes of Yhoo, Amzn, & Cmgi ATHM to get "emotional"
read on the QQQ..While Msft, Intc, Csco , Wcom & Dell are the
big hitters to the NDX index they have the clout to Push
the index by their market cap weight. Msft alone will change the
NDX 3 times more per 1 point move than all four of the internuts
above however the nuts tend to signal the tone or emotional
status and more often than not will pull the rest, many times
when I see the nuts reverse at least interday then I've come to
notice the NDX soon follows..yet it's not their market cap that
does this. So there is no principle that says if the nuts go up
or down the NDX will, however I have sure learned not to bet
against their direction.
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For the over all market I would like to see more comments as
to what people think Foreigners see and are doing and, and
how the indexes from our point of view ( or CNBC style,)
leaves out an index that is adjusted to the changes in
the Dollar..( or the lager global view )and I'm sure
there are big international dealers who can arbitrage in
a heart beat the spreads on the Blue chips based on the changes
in exchange rates. So just what the daily forex is can have
an impact on the market.
decisionpoint.com
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There is just so much going on that we don't see, and the
news pundits don't even look at. Almost 95% of CNBC is emotional
garbage slanted to the bull side in order to please their
clients. But I just about have to watch it as that 5% that is
good is often very good.
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What I am convinced of is the Blue Chips can give a feel for
conditions we don't see in our Nationalized view. Those are the
ones the Foreigners deal in. Trim Taps, nor AMG money flow
data which are both good reads, yet fail to account for flows
in or out of the country. So to much dependence on them can
also land you in surprise land.
----------------
As foreign markets expand and take in trading of our better known
stocks, more and more the data we depend on from the Naz or NYSE
can have important volume and data missing. Making TA on an Index
less reliable than it once was.
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Short term the internuts are a good barometer of sentiment,
how long this will last I won't venture.
AOL is the only one that I know of that Foreigners really buy
and sell much of.
Jim
PS
As usual most of my post are too dam long. |
