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Politics : Ask Michael Burke

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To: re3 who wrote (61551)	6/6/1999 5:42:00 PM
From: Freedom Fighter	Read Replies (1) of 132070

Ike, Horse racing is as intellectually stimulating as investing. It also involves many of the same aptitudes. There are definite relationships between the ability a horse has shown in the past and his probability of winning. There are ways to make estimates about whether he is improving or not. There are also all sorts of theories and styles about how best to measure ability. They range from exotic calculations of speed and pace, subjective comparisons of the quality of the competition, projections on how the race might develop, measuring the skill of the jockey, the trainers and patterns they use to get a horse ready for a top effort, track biases, pedigrees, and combinations of the above etc... After a few years you can identify the major contenders and approximate their chances of winning fairly well. You also discover certain things that the public tends to misunderstand and overbets or underbets. That skill develops over time. Once you get to that stage it becomes investing. You start betting on horses whose odds offer better value than his chances of winning. And just like investing you try to give yourself a large enough margin of safety for profit in case you are misunderstanding something or missing information. The major problem is that the public as a whole is very good and the track take is very high. So profits and opportunities are hard to come by. I concentrate on stakes races because they are very sporting and because I have some special insights into high quality racing. I also win at them over the long haul. I would not recommend it as a way to make money though. It's really tough and requires many years of dedication to get to that stage. And even then most people are just grinding out a few dollars. What it comes down to is that it is appealing and fun for the personality type that is also attracted to investing. I just discovered racing as a teen and didn't discover investing until I got a job and actually had a savings account years later. Wayne

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