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Strategies & Market Trends : Value Investing -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Investor2 who wrote (7425)	6/6/1999 11:35:00 PM
From: Paul Senior	Respond to of 78664

Hi I2. Yes, I thought about that when I wrote it. I sluffed it- took the easy road. Fluffed it. Not many will believe my truth anyway I think. Which is, for stock market players, unless they are very exceptional - most guys aren't going to make (and hold onto) serious money in the stock market until they are about fifty years old with at least a couple of decades of experience. It's when their personality settles down, they know who they are, they've tried it all and know what works for them, and they have a rich man's mindset (they've got enough capital and they don't panic or get seduced out of their picks). (And by then, maybe like you I think, they've got stocks they've held on to for decades or more.) Who even wants to hear that? If true, could be disheartening for a young guy. When people who know me say, well I ought to be rich because I've been doing this investing thing for so long, all I do is sigh and say no. The best and only thing that I can say for myself (I tell them this too) is that I'm still in the game. Up, down, sideways, good times, bad times, I'm still around and still finding stocks I like. And still wrong many, many times. Nice to hear from you,I2. Paul.

To: Investor2 who wrote (7425)	6/6/1999 11:39:00 PM
From: Michael Burry	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 78664

I just think that there are many a "grizzled veteran" of 1972-1983 who are currently populating the management teams of Wall Street's biggest money-making broker/fund machines. And I honestly don't feel I have anything to learn from them. I've studied the crashes and crunched the inflation-adjusted numbers, and I can imagine how scary it would feel to be in a market that cut Disney not from 40 to 30 but 40 to 4. Don't have to be there. I get sick to my stomach thinking about it, and worry about it daily. If "Paul's side" is that grizzled veterans mean anything, then I stand firmly on the other side. You can read through Forbes or Fortune or Worth and find any number of grizzled veterans with lucrative money management businesses writing absolutely moronic crap. I'm reminded of the time I interviewed a grizzled Mr. Dalman, head of US equities at Salomon Bros and PM of their balanced funds. Valuation to him evidently means low PE, big dividend, duh, looks good. Ken Fisher evidently now thinks reseaching a stock means looking up its profile in Yahoo, and Lynch should feel lucky he gave up managing big money a long time ago. Lazlo Birinyi Jr writes the equivalent of the old Parade Dave Barry columns IMO. I mean, very funny. Meanwhile, where was David Tice in 1972-74, and what does he have to offer us today? Mike

To: Investor2 who wrote (7425)	6/7/1999
From: jeffbas	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 78664

Investor2 - I could not have said it better myself, having "enjoyed" all three of those lovely periods. That experience has been a major reason I have underperformed in this bull market, since I just can't justify paying 30 times multiples for large companies growing earnings 10% or buying Internet type stocks that will never justify from a traditional investment point of view even 10% of their highs. Those two categories are where the real money has been made, despite occasional home runs like Hyde or NH which this thread has enjoyed.