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To: JGoren who wrote (5095)	6/7/1999 1:17:00 PM
From: Raymond Duray	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 29987

Hi JGoren, I find Norris's analysis to be shallow and wrong-headed. Not only will there be a continuing proliferation of dial-tone or web-tone as he suggests, but the market will absorb all that becomes available and more. From his office in NYC, he can see the most over cabled city in the world. But he fails to look beyond his neighborhood. The waiting list to receive dial tone in Europe, South America and most of Asia, ex-Japan is very long, waiting periods are measured in weeks or months and not days or hours as it is in NYC. Not only has he got it wrong about dial-tone. He also seems to be clueless as to the amount of data flow through each 'pipe' that's out there. Look at the bit rate. At present, the traffic on the entire Internet is between one and two terabits per second. It is projected to be five to six terabits by 2003. the best way for that data to flow is with generously provisioned dumb bandwidth in the backbone as envisioned by David Isenberg and George Gilder. Everyday there are 175,000 new users of the Internet worldwide. Everyone of them would love to have a T-1 equivalent or better connection to the world. How much requested capacity is that? Let's assume the average use for all 175,000 is 5 minutes per day. Thus, [ 5/(24 x 60) = .0035 ] So, [.0035 x 175,000 x 1.5Mbps = 900Mbps], or approximately 1Gbps capacity that needs to be added to the backbone every day! What glut? Reading Norris I am not convinced that he has done the math. It's far easier to simply recall the excesses of the past and project them into an entirely different situation. Way too glib. Regarding Iridium: I was a shareholder during the period specified by the class action lawyers and am sitting on the fence as to getting involved in the suit as a plaintiff. Is anyone on the thread taking this action? Does anyone have a comment as to the validity of the claims? Is it a case of trying to get blood out of a turnip? Just wondering. Best Ray