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Pastimes : The Justa & Lars Honors Bob Brinker Investment Club -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Allan Harris who wrote (5654)	6/7/1999 9:25:00 AM
From: Ian@SI	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 15132

here's a very interesting Smart Money Page... smartmoney.com And Abby Cohen is the pundit with the best batting average. Is there any surprise that Metz has almost the worst. Part of the info on ABBY: The Queen of the Bulls By Stacey L. Bradford Abby Cohen Predictions Investors shouldn't worry about "economic overheating, inflation surges and major interest rate rises." As the Fed acknowledged during last month's rate cut, global financial markets are out of danger. Still, surging global economies should not lead to inflation. Cohen says inflation rates for the year will be 1.5% to 2%. (Goldman Sachs Research, May 19; New York Times, May 16) The S&P 500 could touch 1385 by spring 2000. And profit growth, not interest rate declines, will be the catalyst for any rise in stock prices. Not only are analysts revising their earnings estimates upward twice as often as they are cutting those figures, but last year's lean days should lead to favorable comparisons in 1999. "For most (but not all) industries in the S&P 500, disappointing results in the second half of 1998 were linked to (1) global economic weakness, (2) financial market turbulence and (3) accounting issues. The backdrop has become increasingly favorable." (Goldman Sachs Research, May 19; Dow Jones News, May 4) There may be more tightening ahead, but further Fed action shouldn't rock the market. "Federal Reserve decision makers might move to reverse the interest rate reductions implemented early last autumn," she says. "But this possibility is already reflected in the financial markets. Fixed income markets have already experienced a de facto tightening; long bond yields have already risen more than 100 basis points." (Goldman Sachs Research, May 19)