To: Mark Oliver who wrote (6282 ) 6/8/1999 9:16:00 PM From: Kurthend Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 10081
Mark, I didn't realize this post was so long. I hope I don't bore you to death. Before I start again on your stop gap solution comment, I would like to add my caveat and other items that I think may be interesting: GMGC still needs to start obtaining revenue to survive and I don't think they will get the meaningful revenue before 4Q (IMO). As much as I hate dilution, GMGC does have the necessary shares to survive to get over the hump if necessary. Provided GMGC does get over the hump. Dilution is better than banckruptcy. Also, the 10 million shares that were registered had to do with financing. Either equity partner (that would make a nice round figure, 10% equity), another Series (I hope not), or selling into the strength of the stock. I have yet to get a straight answer. But GMGC knows that barring any great revenue in Q2 or Q3, the company will be down to about $13 million by October 1st. This is cutting it to short for comfort and GMGC has to know this. That is why they have registered the 10 million in early June (to prepare). I, along with many others, believe this company will either make us paupers or very wealthy. It is a gamble. Revenue will be slow in coming even if QWST, WK, and BS sign on tomorrow for the full fledge service (IMO). It just takes time to build a customer base (see the second paragraph down). But, any portal agreements might state that they will pay GMGC a flat fee per month which help in the immediate future. This is all a guess so please take it for what it is worth. By the way, it takes anywhere from 1-3 months for GMGC to program for VUI for a portal (that is my non-technical guess). Talking about portals, I think Stephen Wall hit the jackpot when he directed us to the Intuit auction site:) Wall is my hero:) One thing that has never been brought up on this forum is what if the carriers sign on major companies similar to what has been alluded to with WK? What would BellSouth being doing to maximize their profits? Who do you think the external trialers are? Joe Blows like myself haven't been offered this trial (yes I am p.o.:)). Once the 3-4 month period is over and BS accepts the service (which I believe they will), there is a possibility that large customer (s) of BS will come on fairly quickly. Also, the BS agreement has to put pressure on the other carriers that are trialing Portico. With all of the recent announcements in ASR/VUI, the carriers IMO will have to stop moving like pond water and start making decisions concerning accepting the GMGC's services. By the way, pond water don't move.Message 9883063 RE>>So, is the Portico model a stop gap solution? I think so.>> After today, I really don't think so. I guess I am speaking more in terms of MagicTalk (the VUI). Without going into the technical aspest of ASR and VUI (primarily since I am a techno idiot), I think what VUI does is much more than strictly ASR (ie Nuance and SpeechWorks). IMO , I believe that current technology, to include technology in the next 10 years or so, will not be able to handle even VUI technology on a chip. I assume that is what you meant by Portico as a stop gap solution. The future IMO is the total picture. Complete integration of services which require much more than a simple speech recognition will be needed. SR is great for getting quotes, but there is a limit to what SR is capable of doing. I have read some where a couple of years ago (I believe on the hard disk drive (HDD) forum) that SEG or QNTM is involved in a small company that is testing some sort of plasma HDD (correct me if I am wrong). As far as I know, this technology still isn't commercially feasible. I think any type of chip with this sort of technology is also along way off. Even if this technology is feasible, I personally wouldn't want anything more basic on my telephone as "call 1-880-123-4567." This IMHO is not what GMGC is all about. I see the future as having minimal costs to customers for long distance phone calls per recent articles. In fact, I wouldn't be surprised if all phone calls made in the US were based on a flat fee per month (similar to AT&T's wireless service). I could see someday someone calling from a hotel to their personal number (with pin) and then make a long distance phone call. All part of the flat fee. I am sure the wire and wireless services will be combined. This would dramatically decrease the costs to GMGC as most of the cost of Portico can most likely be traced to the costs of the 1-800 number / long distance charges. The cost of a Portico or MagicTalk service would become cheap enough for the general public. The last thing I would like to bring up about the stop gap solution comment is the firewall issue. Simple TTS or SR is fine, but companies and individuals will want some sort of protection from the great evil empire. These other competitors (outside Webley and Wildfire) have only the basic tools for obtaining email or other sensitive information. GMGC is actively working on this firewall issue. I am sure that GMGC has the ability to build modules controlled by a portal, carrier, or company (ie for sensitive information), while still having the ability to contol other modules for the same customer at a NOC (ie calendaring, weather, stock quotes, faxes). I think this will be extremely important in the future of MagicTalk (and Kenya for that fact). Anyway, the bottom line is GMGC needs to get the customers. Hope I didn't bore you as I didn't mean to write this much. Take care, Kurt