To: djane who wrote (5100 ) 6/7/1999 4:48:00 PM From: Maurice Winn Respond to of 29987
*ICO* They only traded $700,000 shares today at around $6 per share and something like $3m per day over the past few days. That isn't enough to give any realistic valuation on the company. When they try to raise another $1.7bn, and maybe more, they will find they have to give a very significant discount on the current share price to get the money. ICO can hem and haw about how governments take time to approve the funding but the fact is that nowhere near enough people who have to actually get a return on money were prepared to risk their savings. They should put the whole thing on hold until they find out how Globalstar has gone. Maybe better still, they should return what's left of the money to shareholders and call it a day. Not much chance of that though because the management won't want to have to find other jobs. Maybe such a management attitude will lead to even bigger lawsuits than the Iridium class action suits. If ICO goes ahead in the face of all this mess and lack of shareholder confidence and launches anyway, that seems like financial and management negligence with a cavalier disregard for shareholders' interests. It seems that ICO should be calling an emergency special general meeting of shareholders to decide what to do. It will be interesting to see how the old government bureaucrat types running Inmarsat handle the situation. I bet they go for firing a few billion of taxpayer's and captive shareholder's funds into the wild blue yonder in total disregard for the prospects of any return on investment. That's what governments do when the choice is to get a real job or spend taxpayer's money. I recommend to ICO shareholders that they bail out now! Wishful thinking won't do it. Don't follow Iridium shareholders. Iridium shareholders are stuck with a system completely built. ICO shareholders haven't started firing the big money into space yet. ICO shareholders can save their hides by demanding an immediate cessation of most of the programme with a view to continuing if market demand looks good in 6 months time. Ask LarryL if I give good advice! Maybe unpalatable, but not bad for avoiding financial loss. Sure, there are contracts and launches ready to go and all sorts. There will be costs in slowing down, but a lot less than the costs of an Iridium duplicate! Launching only 6 satellites seems crazy! That will reduce quality of service to unacceptable levels. But I suppose it's better than launching 12 [if they could get the money to launch 12]. Anyway, if they only need 6 satellites, why were they planning on launching 12 straight away? They either needed 12 to make the system work or they were planning a huge waste of money on an overdesigned system. Maybe 8 satellites would do the job? They don't even know how many satellites they need! Better to just take a holiday, mow the lawns, check out the South of France, maybe get a new job if 6 months is too long to wait. By then, telephone technology will be better so handsets will be improved. Launch prices might come down. More people will be able to afford the phone service. The value of the system might be proven by Globalstar demand and then the new shares and fundraising won't have to be done at such a distressed share price. It will be interesting to watch this and see the shareholders lining up their lawyers to sue the management and board of ICO if the launches go ahead in the face of obvious worries and shareholder disfavour. Maurice