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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Michael Watkins who wrote (16310)	6/7/1999 1:45:00 PM
From: Chip McVickar	Respond to of 99985

Michael, So much depends on the mood and positioning of the market at the time of the rate increase. Greenspan has been jaw boning the markets down and successfully knocked all the indexes. I believe the Fed does not want to raise rates because of the international complications ie: the worlds recovery from Asia, Japan, South America and the restructuring of Europe under the ECU. Therefore the mood of the market suggests a factored increase of 0.25%. However your point about >subsequent rate hikes< is valid and could cause further declines...'IF' they were in acted. I continue to believe it will take a substantial event or events to knock out this market for more then a normal 10% correction from the May Highs. That event will not be a 0.25% increase or the worry about more cuts. However, protectionist laws and wages concessions to striking workers, any significant increase in inflation, greater turmoil in Japan...some of these combined would do it! Chip