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To: Rande Is who wrote (4085)	6/7/1999 1:14:00 PM
From: Frank A. Coluccio	Respond to of 12823

Rande, I guess your right. My future 52 Mb/s VDSL service will only handle GLOCs. That is, Gilder Library of Congresses. It wont do Star Wars at all. Maybe a couple of Encyclopedia Britanicas, come to think of it, but not Star Wars. All in good fun, Regards, Frank Coluccio

To: Rande Is who wrote (4085)	6/7/1999 4:14:00 PM
From: Geof Hollingsworth	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 12823

Rande, I don't think you have addressed Bernard's key question (do you believe home broadband access is via FTTH, and if so who is going to pay for it)? From your response, it sounds like you are now saying that you didn't mean that fibre is going to kill xDSL, but rather cable...? If that is your contention, a few often-repeated rejoinders: 1. Digital cable is hardly a revolution (IMHO), but the HFC upgrade to enable 2-way broadband access potentially is, especially now that we know who is willing to pay for it (avoiding several $billion in annual access fees paid to the ILECs provides a lot of capital expenditure). The problem, as many in the bay area are discovering, is that without HI-PHY the current architecture just doesn't scale (some of us can say we told them so). With CableLabs recent rumored retreat from DOCSIS in favor of Broadcom's "TDM-lite", the way forward seems even more muddled (to me, anyway). 2. There are over a million T1 lines in the US which Rhythm, Covad etc. can replace with SDSL at a fraction of the current monthly charges and throw in Internet access to boot. These are typically in places where cable doesn't go (it may "pass" the business park, but there are no drops, and the cost of digging up streets, sidewalks and parking lots to provide hookups will keep it that way). Why won't a significant chunk of that business migrate to the data-CLECs, and further why won't the current frame-relay customers upgrade to xDSL (the evidence is they are doing so)? 3. Internationally the xDSL opportunities are just getting started. I understand that in Japan, where they have spent more money trying to make FTTH happen than anywhere else I know of, NTT is in the process of letting the biggest xDSL contract since the Dead Sea was only sick. FWIW, I think cable will win out in the home access arena, but xDSL will achieve a meaningful penetration. In the SOHO market, xDSL looks like the clear winner. And until fiber termination costs get much lower, I don't see fiber as a meaningful access technology either place. The issue for me isn't the need for bandwidth, it's the cost relative to the customer base's willingness to pay.

To: Rande Is who wrote (4085)	6/8/1999 8:33:00 AM
From: Peter Ecclesine	Respond to of 12823

Hi Rande, This 35mm movies in the home thing is way over the top when forecasting how I value my time. I worked at SGI in the FDDI era, and the notion of 2400 x 3600 pixel full motion graphics was just a dream. Screens were 1024 x 768, and dogfight was the most popular game. Now computer/video gaming is a larger market than movies, in worldwide expenditures. How many movies does Hollywood release a year? ~150? How many of them will I pay $7 to see? How much more would I pay to have them seen at my home? The NGI appears to lack a demand forecast, or perhaps I will find the movies of India and the Philippines more compelling than TV. Couch potato activities are not what fills Internet pipes. petere