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Gold/Mining/Energy : Strictly: Drilling and oil-field services -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: The Ox who wrote (45993)	6/7/1999 2:35:00 PM
From: Douglas V. Fant	Respond to of 95453

Michael, No opinion on oil prices, but a range of $2.00-2.40/mcf for the next 12 months seems a little low for natural gas prices....

To: The Ox who wrote (45993)	6/7/1999 4:27:00 PM
From: Tomas	Respond to of 95453

New Government Report Sheds Light on Oil Data Accuracy WASHINGTON, June 7 /PRNewswire/ -- A new report from the U.S. General Accounting Office (GAO)* raises fundamental concerns about use of the International Energy Agency monthly Oil Market Report on petroleum supply and demand by commodity traders during times when the oil market is changing rapidly. ''There's not a lot of new information in the GAO report for experts in the oil business, but there are three points to focus on. First, the report is most inaccurate when the oil market is responding to significant changes. Second, IEA data need to be more transparent so that readers can understand the limitations of the data. And third, the commodity exchanges need to be most cautious in using the IEA report when major changes are occurring in the oil market,'' said George Yates, chairman of the Independent Petroleum Association of America. ''Everyone understands and accepts that economic analysts use estimates and best available information when they analyze complex world markets,'' said Yates. ''There's always a margin of error. That's not new.'' ''What is new here and what most users of the report didn't realize,'' he continued, ''is that the IEA's margin of error varied significantly in early 1998 when the oil market was reacting to significant turbulence in supply and demand. The GAO report showed that during this time, the accuracy of the IEA report diminished from recent expectations of the report's accuracy.'' It is important for producers, brokers, and customers alike to recognize that we are operating with a less reliable statistical barometer. The crude oil market has changed in the IEA's 25 years of existence and so have the expectations of the data. Data quality had improved in the late 1980's and early 1990's to the point that the market had an unrealistic expectation of the quality of the data reported and reacted accordingly. Given the information in the GAO report, users need to be more cautious about the data. In particular, the commodity exchanges need to better understand the limits on the information in the IEA reports, most specifically when the oil market is turbulent as it was during early 1998, and adjust their use accordingly. ''The release of the GAO report is a signal to the world oil industry that we must begin to think a lot harder about the information we rely on, to ask tough questions, and to help the IEA and other ata-collection agencies improve data reporting, resolve anomalies, and develop more reliable instruments,'' Yates concluded. Yates extended IPAA's thanks to Sen. Pete Domenici (R-NM) for his help in directing the GAO's attention to the problem. ''Senator Domenici has performed an important public service for energy producers and consumers,'' he said. ''His insistence that we get to the root of a clear economic problem helps to establish a firm foundation on which we can build a better reporting and analysis system in the future to assure timely and transparent data.'' International Energy Agency: How the Agency Prepares Its World Oil Market Statistics (GAO/RCED-99-142), May 1999 SOURCE: Independent Petroleum Association of America biz.yahoo.com