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Strategies & Market Trends : Value Investing -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Mike 2.0 who wrote (7441)	6/7/1999 3:55:00 PM
From: Wallace Rivers	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 78644

Attention Value Investors! Is the following a Blue Light Special or a dog? I may have mentioned it before, but am looking at it again -Genessee Brewing (GENBB). I have no position. A list of pros and cons without doing much DD (i.e. only a quick look at Qs and Ks). Pros: $60+/share book (per Yahoo) $10/ share cash " Seasonally strong time, with the weather being hot in the company's core market, the northeast. RKY (Coors) being pushed by Merrill Lynch 6%+ dividend yield Cons: Mature business Fairly consistent Q over Q declines in sales Highly competitive business, with bigger players (Coors, Bud, etc.) with significantly more resources. Very thinly traded Comments anyone?

To: Mike 2.0 who wrote (7441)	6/7/1999 3:58:00 PM
From: Michael Burry	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 78644

Re: ADSK, MAT Re: cash hoard of Autodesk vs. WALL, there's simply no comparison. I know WALL and its competitors generally have large cash hoards, mainly because their business/industry segment is disappearing and they've sold off different parts and there really is no place left to invest in their area. Some of these cos like WALL and its competitors are better off just changing industries and using their cash hoard to fund a different business plan, IMO. That's not the case with Autodesk. Re: briefing.com's analysis of Autodesk, seems that every time they're in a product transition, the same exact criticism comes out - no need to upgrade. Then people go and upgrade anyway as the product gets distributed. And surprisingly, new biz buys the product too, especially as the product cycle matures. For really successful software firms with industry-dominating products (ORCL, MSFT included), such criticism only brings about buying opportunities. So IMO briefing.com's criticism (echoed/copied from many other sources) is rather old and known. They're sales are very lumpy, and their quarters are erratic, no doubt. But while someone might skip one upgrade, they won't skip many. Because ADSK's customers are very much in very competitive businesses themselves and can't be caught short-handed against the competition. Re: Mattel, be aware that the WSJ has a front-page story on them today. Basically incriminates the CEO as something of an airhead Barbie herself, and notes how much faith has been lost both among institutions and previous Barbie faithful. Having gotten my info mainly from the CEO herself, I'm rather disappointed that she can be so illogical and foolhardy. Makes me doubt her guidance to shareholders even more. Still like MAT at its lows. I'd bet you that ADSK will outperform Mattel over the next few years, but I've already got money riding on it ;) One thing that is helping me a bit is the tremendous support that ADSK has in the low 20's. I mean, going back years, the stock has always jumped from this level. I would sit up, pay attention, and possibly exit the postition if it broke through to new years-old lows. Mike