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Technology Stocks : AUTOHOME, Inc -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Ron Dior who wrote (10725)	6/8/1999 12:28:00 AM
From: deeno	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 29970

Ron just to play the opposite side of this, I think it is possible that ATHM is nothing more than a strategic pawn that is ultimatly expendable. Let me start by saying that Im long ATHM and was thinking this when Frank posed the question why are we speaking so much about T. I was trying to explore in my own mind the downside of the situation. Yes T has spent alot of money for... Cable... ATHM was really just part of the package. A very valuable part, granted. If they did get a closed system it would have given a ready made package system that they enough interest in to control the direction. As time went on it was evident they may really get 27% of all cable and a closed network with just a little content they might explore the idea of competing in a whole new arena with AOL. They took grossly over valued internet stock and purchased grossly over priced content provider, excite. Not bad. Remember though T has stated over and over they did not want to be in the entertainment or content business. It is possible this pawn was becoming more valuable by the day, by circumstance, not origional thought. (yes I know this is billions of dollars we are talking about). Had things gone along without incident maybe this pawn could have been exchanged for a rook or bishop. Well the opponent (s) saw a checkmate coming and is arranging a defense. We are in a position where we are in limbo. I beleive T's plan is bigger than a few billion dollars. If they successfully implement a stradegy of providing the pipline of voice,data,telephone,media etc. monthly cash flow 10-15 years from now will cover any expensive pawn they may have lost. I think it is possible that T will use the ATHM pawn to leverage a deal that will protect their pipes or even add new ones (mediaone). Spin it off, Sell it, trade it. A couple Billion dollar sacrifice looks impressive to governments. Take the few Billions of dollars pay down a little debt or ramp up those pipes for the onslaught of willing ISP providers. And they still get what they want, the pipes, last mile, customer access, telephony etc. This is not necessarily bad for ATHM. They will have to compete. With excite they have a better chance than they did before T. Contracts will need to be bought out or complied to on a case by case basis. The pie might get bigger faster with more players. They WILL get a good slice. Frankly my concern lies more with this xdsl getting better and this "land based wireless" that I dont understand yet. Time is the enemy here. This Portland deal is going to cost alot of time. I think however that T will somehow relent quickly (a year?), maybe even tie in the mediaone( 9 Months)deal. The point of this fantasy was to open up the idea that 1. T may not need ATHM to accomplish their ultimate objective. 2. ATHM might well make alot of money on their own. The combination might be killer if our opponents let us slide. Just a thought.