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To: James Thompson who wrote (9371)6/7/1999 2:54:00 PM
From: Jenne  Respond to of 19700
 
The Big Funds Are Back in TSEL
By James J. Cramer

6/7/99 2:42 PM ET


Here's one of those comebacks for The Stocks Everyone Loves. You know TSEL, that the group of stocks that powers most of the mutual funds. Everybody loves them because they deliver continuous earnings gains and because, when the bond market is stable, the funds that own these stocks have no qualms paying any amount for them.

I tend to hate it when TSEL rallies. It is so hard to beat the Janus' of the world -- yes I think about beating them, I am a competitive individual -- and these big funds never tip their hands when they decide to turn on the spigot.

But they are back today, taking up Cisco (CSCO:Nasdaq), Amazon (AMZN:Nasdaq), Microsoft (MSFT:Nasdaq), Dell (DELL:Nasdaq) and EMC (EMC:NYSE). These stocks must feel like warm old shoes to mutual fund folks, especially now that they are a few points off their highs.

How do I know that institutions are buying them? Brokers don't give up their clients but when you hear "size to buy" Cisco for the four-millionth time you have to believe that's not an order from Schwab (SCH:NYSE).

TSEL buyers come out of the woodwork after a Big Bad Event . The mutual funds have never lost their faith in TSEL. They just periodically walk away from them, making TSEL look like death in the process.

For me, I stick with what I can live with: telco tech and some PC-related stocks. Hey, I gotta make money when TSEL goes up, too. I can't sideline myself. Too much money to be made scalping TSEL.




To: James Thompson who wrote (9371)6/7/1999 2:59:00 PM
From: Jenne  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 19700
 
CMGI (CMGI:Nasdaq) has been one of the leading point-gainers on the Nasdaq. It was up 8 3/4, or 9%, at 103. NaviSite, which provides outsourced Web hosting and is a majority-owned subsidiary of CMGI, said that it had signed strategic agreements with Dell (DELL:Nasdaq) and Microsoft (MSFT:Nasdaq).

In connection with the agreements, Dell and Microsoft have made investments for a 4.9% and 4.4% interest in NaviSite, respectively. Dell was up 1 7/16, or 4%, at 35 5/16, while Microsoft was up 15/16, or 1%, at 80 1/2.




To: James Thompson who wrote (9371)6/7/1999 3:08:00 PM
From: jackhach  Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 19700
 
Respectfully, Jim -- are you adjusting volume for splits? My math goes back quite awhile and is on 123 spreadsheet. According to my records -- if you take the average (which always allow for exceptions -- thus an average) it is an unnatural event to have credible movement without volume. Ya' might get the movement without the volume, but historically it indicates that the retail LONGS are stretched and have no available (side) funds to defend the inflated/deflated pricing. Usually, the next trading session (sometimes two) brings us back to what I term a "normal or natural" range again.

Again, this is just one man's thoughts among very many. Believe me, I want to get back in for this inevitable run, but can't justify the buying at these $100+ prices. I'm feeling real stupid having sold at $97.75 right now though.

In defense of your math, however, I should say that just an extra 20% volume can make all the difference in the world. Average range about doubles with just the little extra 20% kick.

-JH