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Technology Stocks : Seac - Seachange New IPO -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: zoe who wrote (244)	6/8/1999 5:02:00 PM
From: PeterBurgess	Respond to of 431

Closed at 14 1/4 with vol = 147,000 and on a day when the DJIA is down 143! NCTA show (Cable99) early next week. I wonder if Seachange will have any product, marketing, or sales announcements. I scanned the seminar list and only found one VOD seminar. I bet the number is significantly larger next year! I think that the last NAB show and the x-c roadshow spurred a lot of broadcast product sales. I hope that this show will spur more cable product sales. Given the recent market action in the stock, some institutions are starting to accumulate stock prior to the anticipated revenue jump in broadcast product sales and VOD trials and commercial roll-out. Seachange has around 14m shares outstanding. I wonder how much stock is being tightly held by employees and directors? It doesn't take much volume to bump the price. I wonder what price levels will trigger sales? bigcharts.com The IPO price was 15 which suggests one supply overhead or resistence level, but I kinda doubt that many IPO buyers are still holding after the big run-up in 96 and 97 and the big collapse in 97 and 98 -- two good reasons to have sold. The chart shows price congestion around 18, 22, 26 but I bet most of these folks were washed out last fall and when Seac hit a 52 wk low during 12/98 as many folks dumped to take a tax loss. I'd discount the 30 min spike this spring when a swarm of internet crazed traders did a hit and run after Seachange announced an internet/intranet video streaming product. That clique is long gone. So who's left holding high priced stock and itching to sell at a profit? There are some long term holders at higher that have kept the faith for several years waiting for the VOD holy grail - they are not likely sell too soon. And there are early employees holding stock at < $.01/share, but psychologically thinking about the heady days of $35+/share. Their sell points might be triggered by diversification concerns, financial independence, reasonable valuation based on company's opportunities,... Meanwhile every day the market gives us another golden egg...