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To: Big Dog who wrote (46022)	6/7/1999 7:58:00 PM
From: Captain James T. Kirk	Respond to of 95453

Oh, what a pain in the A**:

To: Big Dog who wrote (46022)	6/7/1999 7:58:00 PM
From: Captain James T. Kirk	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 95453

Oh, what a pain in the A**: June 7, 5:32 pm Eastern Time Iraq may hinder OPEC efforts if it ups oil exports By Bernie Woodall NEW YORK, June 7 (Reuters) - Iraq has embarked on an ambitious journey to boost production that some industry experts believe may once again hinder efforts by other world oil powers to curb a supply glut. Iraq on Monday announced that it would soon be able to increase production in southern Iraq by about 750,000 barrels per day (bpd) in the next year. It also said it would increase the capacity of the pipeline to Turkey from about one million bpd to 1.6 million bpd. For more than a year, Iraq's ability to outstrip production expectations has thwarted efforts by OPEC to curtail world supply. Prior to the Gulf War Iraq was the world's second largest oil producer, trailing only Saudi Arabia. It is also second only to Saudi Arabia in proven oil reserves. Oil analysts said they don't doubt Iraq's ability to increase production, despite the damage done its oil industry by war and nearly nine years of sanctions after it invaded Kuwait. Iraq also said it wants to increase output to 3.5 million barrels per day (bpd) in 2000. If it is able to meet that goal, it would mean about a million more barrels on the daily world market, probably enough to undermine OPEC's attempts to reduce high world oil inventories. The head of Iraq's Southern Oil Company, Rafid al-Dibuni, said that the newly commissioned West Qurana oilfield would produce 80,000 bpd in August. Al-Dibuni also said production will also increase in the giant Rumaila oilfield in southern Iraq. Nizam Sharief, director of energy research at Houston's Hornsby & Co., sees Iraq's impact as bearish to OPEC plans by early 2000, though perhaps not enough to bring prices back to their severely low levels of last December. ''If Iraq gets the spare parts, then I would say that would undercut OPEC's efforts,'' Sharief said. ''Enough to derail the whole thing? I doubt it. But Iraq will have a significant impact.'' Roger Diwan and Raad al-Kadiri, analysts with Petroleum Finance Corp. in Washington, agreed and see Iraq's role as significant. Iraq's production is now between 2.6 million and 2.7 million bpd, with exports averaging 2.1 million bpd. Iraqi officials say they will increase production to three million bpd by the end of 1999. Iraq has been under international sanctions that include an oil embargo since August 1990 when it invaded Kuwait. An ''oil-for-food'' program in place since December 1996 has allowed Iraq to export limited amounts of oil to buy food, medicines and other humanitarian goods, while also paying for U.N. observers and to make war reparations. Last month, the U.N. Security Council all but said it would allow Iraqi unlimited exports under the program, though broader sanctions will remain. Iraq's export ceiling currently is set at $5.26 billion of oil sales every six months, but the Security Council said that if Iraq nears the ceiling it likely will be raised or lifted altogether. Also, Iraq can spend up to $300 million every six months to pay for spare parts and equipment needed to bolster production. The United Nations has not updated its December assessment, based on projections by the Dutch oil firm Saybolt, that Iraq will not be able to increase production significantly until March 2000. Often since the oil-for-food program began in December 1996, U.N. experts have been conservative in assessing Iraq's production capacity. Iraq more often than not has exceeded the conservative projections by U.N. experts.