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Technology Stocks : Novell (NOVL) dirt cheap, good buy? -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: Jack Whitley who wrote (27135)6/7/1999 11:16:00 PM
From: WE89  Respond to of 42771
 
Jun. 04, 1999 (Computer Reseller News - CMP via COMTEX) -- Watertown, Mass. - When it
comes to software, sometimes the more things change, the more they stay the same.

Even though Microsoft Corp. was late to the Net game, it remains firmly entrenched atop the
pile of U.S. PC software develop-ers, with nearly $16.7 billion in revenue for 1998, according to
the recently released Softletter 100. That represents 27 percent growth for the Redmond,
Wash.-based giant.

Novell Inc., Provo, Utah, also had a banner year, with revenue up 26 percent to $1.12 billion,
according to Watertown-based Softletter, which tallied the figures based on calendar-year 1998
revenue.

Fresh off its buying binge, Santa Clara, Calif.-based Network Associates Inc. grew 35 percent
to $990 million. However, Adobe Systems Inc., San Jose, Calif., saw revenue fall 2 percent to
$894 million.

In 1998, 25 companies fell off the list due to acquisitions or faltering sales. Another 27
companies reported flat or negative growth, with midsize utility and business software
companies hit the hardest.

Growth leaders included Greenwich Mean Time-UTA, Arlington, Va., which saw revenue
increase nearly 10,000 percent. Other fast-climbers included Allaire Corp., Cambridge, Mass.,
which grew 168 percent, to become No. 55 on the list, and Dragon Systems Inc., a
voice-recognition software maker based in Newton, Mass., which grew 166 percent to hit the
No. 27 spot.

No longer on the list are Broderbund Software Inc. and Quarterdeck Corp., both of which were
acquired.




To: Jack Whitley who wrote (27135)6/7/1999 11:21:00 PM
From: WE89  Respond to of 42771
 
Jun. 04, 1999 (Computer Reseller News - CMP via COMTEX) -- New York - As the high-tech
industry races into a new era emphasizing communications and the Internet, the traditional PC
players are trying frantically to corral new technologies to secure their positions.

Microsoft Corp., Intel Corp., Compaq Computer Corp., Novell Inc. and Cisco Systems Inc. are
just some of the companies seeking a piece of the action by making outright acquisitions or
equity investments.

"The broad view is the shift toward a communications-based technology world and away from a
desktop computer-based technology world," said Jeff Matthews, general partner at RAM
Partners LP, a Greenwich, Conn.-based investment firm.

Among the more active companies has been Redmond, Wash.-based Microsoft, which not only
has substantial cash to spend, but the most to lose by staying put, analysts said.

Microsoft executives insist they are not trying to become cable or telecom providers, but each
of its investments has had a strategic payoff for Microsoft's software, operating systems and
Web-based content products such as the Microsoft Network.

Last month, the software company purchased a $5 billion slice of AT&T Corp., a deal that
guaranteed an increase in the number of Windows CE-powered set-top boxes that the cable
and telecom giant will deploy. Microsoft last month also invested $600-million in Nextel
Communications Inc., which helped cement plans to deliver wireless access to the Microsoft
Network portal.

Critics have said Microsoft is "buying customers," while other industry analysts said the
company has identified market shifts and aggresively is positioning itself to take advantage.
"They definitely want to use their cash reserves," said Christopher Galvin, analyst at Hambrecht
& Quist Inc., San Francisco. "They're not getting any credit for having cash on the balance
sheet. They're better off making investments for good returns and also investments that provide
additional leverage for their product portfolio."

But some of Microsoft's moves, such as the AT&T deal, could backfire, Matthews said. "It's a
poor strategy because the market ultimately decides what it wants. You can't bribe your way
in," he said.

Matthews points to Cisco's strategy as a good model to follow. "They have been buying every
piece of hardware they need to make the transition," he said. While some companies are
making many investments in many areas, San Jose, Calif.-based Cisco is going after only the
pieces it needs and is buying them outright, he said.

Meanwhile, for companies receiving the cash infusions, the investments could mean the
difference between thriving and dying.

For example, E-Stamp Corp. believes investments from Microsoft and Compaq, Houston, give
its online postage solution a better chance in the market. Microsoft and Compaq were among a
handful of companies that took part in a $16 million equity investment in E-Stamp. "We want to
align ourselves with leaders because we think it will help us in the distribution channel," said
Justin Thomas, director of strategy and planning at E-Stamp, Palo Alto, Calif.

In addition, Novell, Provo, Utah, put $50 million into its Internet Equity Fund in 1997 in an effort
to buttress the range of applications tapping into Novell Directory Services (NDS). Since then,
the company has taken equity investments in nine firms and acquired another.

"[This] year directories in the Internet that manage relationships and security and identity will
become probably the most important factor," said Chris Stone, Novell senior vice president of
strategy. "[It] will be the year we have to prove ourselves."

Meanwhile, Intel, Santa Clara, Calif., has one of the largest corporate venture investing
programs in the technology industry, with a portfolio of some 250 companies valued at about $3
billion. Intel usually takes small, minority stakes of less than $10 million each in companies.

Intel executives have said the primary reason for investing is strategic-to boost sales of PC
products by creating new uses for PCs. Areas where Intel has invested include enterprise
computing, the Internet and high-speed networking. On a larger scale, Intel last week acquired
computer-telephony components maker Dialogic Corp. for $780 million. (See related story on
page 214.)

Although its investment goal is strategic, Intel executives said they also look to get a financial
return. The company does not disclose its results, but Alex Wong, technical assistant to Leslie
Valdasz, who heads Intel's strategic investments, said Intel has made many investments in
Internet companies, many of which have gone public.

In addition to its investments in outside companies, Intel invests internally in employee
ventures. The company budgeted $50 million this year for this fund.

Kelly Spang, analyst at Technology Business Research, Hampton, N.H., said by funding
employee's ideas, Intel "could be harvesting some really great venture ideas that in the past
may have gone to a small start-up in Silicon Valley."


Marcia Savage, Lee Copeland & Stuart Glascock contributed to this
story.
Coralling New Investments

Intel: Proxim Inc., Lernout & Hauspie Speech Products and Persistence Software Inc.


Microsoft: Nextel Communications, Rhythms and Banyan Systems
Novell: Red Hat Software Inc., Encommerce Inc. and Evergreen Internet
Inc.
Compaq: Shopping.com, Virage Inc. and RoadRunner



To: Jack Whitley who wrote (27135)6/7/1999 11:24:00 PM
From: WE89  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 42771
 
To Complete Its Comeback, Novell Still Has Several
Holes To Fill


SATURDAY, JUNE 05, 1999 1:06 AM EST
- CMP Media

Jun. 04, 1999 (InternetWeek - CMP via COMTEX) -- As my last column
pointed out, Novell has performed a significant turnaround, giving itself
an opportunity to carve out a share of the rapidly evolving directory
marketplace. Having an opportunity and seizing it are two different
things, however.

Novell is at a delicate point in its turnaround. Any misstep will be
magnified many times, and old questions about the company's future
can easily resurface. This is particularly true of the next 12 months as
Microsoft rolls out its own directory products. We can poke fun at
Microsoft all we want for being late, but anyone who thinks Active
Directory won't have a significant impact on the market once it does
ship is living on a different planet.

To deal with Active Directory effectively, Novell must transcend its NOS
roots, offering a much larger value proposition than Active Directory can
offer. Active Directory will be the default directory for Windows 2000
Server and important applications such as Microsoft Exchange. Many
customers consider these strategic parts of their network, so they will
deploy it. Novell must be able to establish a value proposition for NDS in
that world, or its newfound luster will fade. The best way to build that
value proposition is to bridge the NOS, e-commerce and extranet
directory worlds.

In addition to a NetWare-independent version of NDS, there's a laundry
list of things Novell must deliver in the next 12 to 18 months to
accomplish that goal. IT managers should carefully monitor Novell's
progress in completing the tasks on that checklist, which includes, but
is not limited to, the following items:

Metadirectory services: Metadirectory tools are an essential component
of identity and relationship management, and Novell's metadirectory
strategy is incomplete. The NetVision products that Novell licensed
provide point-to-point synchronization with important products such as
Domino and Exchange. But Novell needs a more comprehensive
metadirectory product.

Public-key infrastructure: Novell also lacks a coherent PKI strategy,
which is essential to its efforts to manage identity and enable
e-commerce. Novell must integrate both its directory and "digitalme"
technology with PKI if it's to succeed. Neither Novell's relationship with
Entrust Technologies nor the limited certificate server it included in
NetWare 5 provides this level of integration, and Novell needs to build,
buy or partner to gain it.

LDAP support: Novell vastly improved its support for the Lightweight
Directory Access Protocol with NetWare 5 and NDS 8. But there are
administrative functions, such as modifying schema and creating
indices, that Novell could enable via LDAP that today are available only
using Novell's proprietary protocol. Novell also should make sure that
any LDAP application that runs on Netscape Directory Server runs on
NDS 8 without modification.

DNS name space support: NDS 8 supports the domain-component
objects that allow managers to map Domain Name Server (DNS) names
to directory containers, such as organizational units. But NDS doesn't
use the DNS namespace as its native name space. To compete as an
Internet directory over the long term, NDS must support better
integration with DNS, including support for the native DNS name space.

Federated (non-global) schema: Novell has long promised to deliver a
version of NDS that would support different schema in different partitions
of the directory. It must deliver on that promise.

Application development road map: Novell's decision to license IBM's
WebSphere app server has the potential to unify Novell's framework
around a single run-time environment. But Novell gave no details for how
it will fulfill that promise. It needs to publish a road map of how and
when it will integrate all of its products and services with that platform
and how third parties will get the tools and support they need.

None of the items on this partial list is a no-brainer. While Novell's
turnaround is great news for the market, no one should assume that the
battle is over or that Novell's future is assured. To their credit, Eric
Schmidt and his management team have turned Novell around and put
the company in a much better position. Now comes the even harder
part: doing the work necessary to stay there.

Jamie Lewis is president of The Burton Group, a research firm
specializing in network computing technologies. He can be reached at
jlewis@tbg.com.