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Technology Stocks : Semi-Equips - Buy when BLOOD is running in the streets! -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Katherine Derbyshire who wrote (7911)	6/7/1999 10:49:00 PM
From: Ian@SI	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 10921

Ahhhh, but Katherine, your post implies that you think the world and all companies in it are fair. Read about ADM. Read about Vitamin sales for the last few decades. Sooner or later, enough chip makers will drop out of the poker game, and the remainder will decide how to allocate the pot among the surviving players. And it could be decades before another Joel Klein comes along and catches them with their hands in all of our pockets. But in the current environment, you're absolutely correct. JIT fab capacity, and nothing but, isn't even a fantasy. Ian.

To: Katherine Derbyshire who wrote (7911)	6/8/1999 6:52:00 PM
From: Math Junkie	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 10921

Here's more on the incentives to build more than is prudent: Message 10037976 Back in the 1970's, some US Semi's were too cautious on building new Fabs, and updating Semi-Eqpt in old Fabs. That gave Japanese companies their opportunity. Between 1975 and 1980, US Semi's lost a giant chunk of the market - and were not able to get it back. End users found the US Semi's to be unreliable compared to the Japanese. That led to the Semi-Eqpt industry, and the determination to never fall behind again. Better to take some cyclical losses than to lose customers. This attitude keeps the Semi's ordering Semi-Eqpt somewhat longer than the CFO's would like.