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To: wsp who wrote (21935)6/7/1999 11:39:00 PM
From: MileHigh  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 93625
 
More business for Intel....


June 07, 1999, Issue: 1064
Section: Semiconductors
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Fate of Cyrix is uncertain
Michael Slater

It has been a long, hard road for Cyrix. Competing with Intel is a tough business, and Cyrix's execution just wasn't good enough. After the company became part of National, progress slowed dramatically while strategies were rethought and turfs established. Now, National has thrown in the towel on the PC processor business, leaving Cyrix with an uncertain future.

Ironically, Cyrix unveiled a revamped processor road map just weeks after National's announcement. Cyrix had once planned to differentiate its PC processors through integration. Now, National will develop integrated processors for information appliances, but Cyrix-focused on PCs-will stick with the integration levels and bus interfaces defined by Intel.

Thus, the MXi, an integrated processor based on Cyrix's Cayenne core, and the M3, a next-generation version that was to include Direct Rambus memory interfaces and Cyrix's Jalapeno core, have both been canned (or at least indefinitely delayed). These chips are too pricey for information appliances, and Cyrix didn't find much receptivity in PCs.

Instead, Cyrix's road map now calls for a chip code-named Gobi, which integrates the Cayenne core with a 256k on-chip L2 cache and a Socket 370 bus interface. If it ships as planned in the third quarter, it will be the first Celeron pin-compatible chip on the market and could mark the beginning of Socket 370 as a multivendor standard, following in the footsteps of Socket 7.

The M3 has been replaced on the road map with Mojave, due in the second quarter of 2000, which will put the Jalapeno core (Cyrix's first ground-up new design since the 6x86) into a Gobi-like Socket 370 product.

The new road map shows that Cyrix's plan calls for continuing to compete head-to-head with Intel, rather than differentiating through integration. This can be a successful strategy-especially with AMD heading off in a divergent direction-if sufficient clock speeds can be achieved. If Gobi is limited to Intel's lowest Celeron speed and below, it will be relegated to bargain-basement prices where it is tough to make money. Mojave should be much faster, but Intel will have changed the landscape by then; the question is how Mojave will compare to whatever Intel is shipping at the time.

Quick, nearly flawless execution is necessary to succeed against Intel. Intel's competitors have had a hard time clearing this bar, and it will be even harder during another ownership transition.

-Michael Slater (michael@mslater.com) is principal analyst at cahners Micro Design Resources (www.mdronline.com).

Copyright ® 1999 CMP Media Inc.




To: wsp who wrote (21935)6/8/1999 6:21:00 AM
From: unclewest  Read Replies (3) | Respond to of 93625
 
>>1. Is the annual earnings refering to rambus calendar year ending
Sept. 1999. ?

2. Do the estimates allow for a Administration and R&D of about 20 to
25%, then also taxes of approx. 37% ?<<

wsp, re: your questions...
1. not sure. is it important?
2. taxes are figured at 38%. that is one area where i have a question.
i think we need to calculate irs and cal state which may bump us up a bit. i am waiting for an answer to that from merrill lynch legal dept. can someone here help with that one?
corporate expenses are included but another area i am looking at. i presently think they may increase at a faster rate than indicated on the spreadsheet.

in all fairness, there are some income areas that seem a bit light. imo these may more than make up for the above.
more on that as i get other input.

i realize that the numbers seem enormous in today's dram market of $15 billion. remember the dram market is projected to grow to over $100 billion by 2002. that is 6x present. rambus share is going to grow from less than 1% of a 15 billion market now to a possible near 90+% of a 100+ billion market in 2002.
this growth explosion is why all of the dram mfrs are moving so fast to get in.
unclewest
i need a slide rule. my electronic calculator can't do numbers this big.