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Politics : Ask Michael Burke -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Knighty Tin who wrote (61641)	6/8/1999 12:10:00 AM
From: Mama Bear	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 132070

Michael, during April I was inundated with offers from my credit cards to borrow money at teaser rates of 3.9%, 4.9%, 5.99%, and 9.9%. Seriously, not one card didn't make me an offer. Wouldn't you know the 9.9% offer was the best, because it was good for as long as it took to pay it off, while the others went to 12%, 15%, and 18% after a few months. Oh, the 3.9% offer wanted a 3% 'transaction fee' for a 3 month 3.9% loan. What a deal. I passed, but I wonder how many others did? Barb

To: Knighty Tin who wrote (61641)	6/8/1999 5:49:00 PM
From: Knighty Tin	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 132070

To All, The High Tech Strategist review. Outstanding issue this time around. 1. Fred is calling for a general market crash. He quotes all the usual suspects, high valuations, lousy eps, rising rates, high debt levels, Y2K, bear capitulation, etc. But this month he quotes a new source: The Dell thread on something called The Silicon Investor. Never heard of it. Hey, it ain't the only place I've been kicked out of that I can't remember. <g> 2. He posits that any market downturn will turn up a lot of rotten eggs financially. For example, you needed a bond market rally to kill Orange County and Russian to blow up to hit LTCM. Nobody knew about those problems ahead of time. I shudder to think how a stock market crash will hit this loony tunes Greenspan economy. The pain will be gruesome and even with my long puts, I am not looking forward to it. After all, how many put profits do I have to earn to support all of my relatives? <g> 3. Fred claims that sales to the channel will look impressive, in units, this quarter. But sales to end users are going to be death on a stick. And, in revenues, neither will be worth iguana spit. Some of this is NOT a direct quote. <g> In April, unit sales were up 20.2%. Revenues were DOWN 2%. I think this is just consumer sales, though Fred doesn't say so and I haven't seen the original report from PC Data. 4. Forrester Research says consumer pc spending will peak in 1999 and then fall 7% a year for the next 4 years. Yes, that makes my bearish bones feel good, but these Forrester guys have been way off in their predictions, so I don't want to weight them very heavily. 5. He has a good laugh at Gateway's tv ads and their "full cost" flim flam. 6. He noted that year over year server ASPs fell 31% in the first quarter. 7. He doesn't think much of Micron's huge share price vs. their probably huge losses for this and the next several quarters. He warns of inventory growing at MU and Samsung. Also, Mitsubishi, one of the cos. MU is putting out of business, just announced that they will increase DRAM capacity 25%. When are these huge, well-financed conglomerates going to get the message that they can't compete with the soon-to-be equity free monster in Boise? <VBG> 8. Intel remains his favorite put stock. 3.