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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: HairBall who wrote (16374)	6/8/1999 6:12:00 AM
From: j.o.	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 99985

Thanks for posting the charts, LG - I'm in London at the moment, and don't have my full set of links, etc. on my laptop - the MDA website and thread are all one really needs to keep up! To give a quick update on the TYX - we have now reached the minimum 5.98% target we gave a couple of weeks ago on the TYX for this subwave 5 of the 5th wave upmove from the sub-5% level. it's probably the cleanest set of elliot waves you'll ever see! Just looking at your chart is like opening a textbook. Wave 5 is now just as long as wave 1. Wave 5 might still extend to become as long as wave 3, and reach 6.08%, but there are already 5 clean subwaves within this wave 5. So we have truly reached our "goals" here. I would suggest watching the price action here, with an eye on the shorter-term support trendlines on this last upmove. When these begin to go, I think that will give confirmation that we've put in a top. Then we'll look forward to a large A-B-C move which should retrace 38.2% (minimum) of the entire upmove in rates. I will try to give a suggestion of the exact level later today, but the risk/reward has now shifted to favor short positions from these levels. Shorter-term indicators will help us time the entry on the short. The stock indices are a little confusing at the moment. It still looks to me as though we are setting up for another downleg - especially in light of the fact that the most bearish people I know are now circling, but not actually short at these levels. We have seen some short-term bears squeezed out on this consolidation, but the longer-term uptrends are still a thing of the past, and (like in your featured index chart) we are now running into serious overhead resistance in some larger stocks and indexes. I can imagine the dow making it up a bit higher from here (a matter of 100 points or so). Some of the banks still have a bit more upside before they hit strong resistance. I fully expect them to fail and set up the next downmove. I am seeing others report that the downtrend in the banks is over, so some confirmation there <ggggggg> We'll see! I started buying puts with the S&P just below 1320, so I'm a bit underwater on that position. If C and CMB were to take out their overhead resistance levels I will need to decide whether to keep this position. Like me, many bears are on a bit of a back foot at the moment - time to see how much fuel the bulls have! Good luck today! j.o.