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Strategies & Market Trends : Technical Analysis - Beginners -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: big run who wrote (10609)	6/8/1999 1:03:00 AM
From: gonzongo	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 12039

Big run- how do you find the big runners? What makes a stock move more than others? PR. Or supply and demand... In her book on volatility Nagler wrote that the more volatile a database- the more likely the move will be big when your signals appear. The most statistically valid form of PR is extemely high revenue growth. In other words.. this stock has potential. When a stock has potential and demand outstrips supply... ( low float or high percent turnover of float) then something happens. It has happened time and again- just look at IOM a few years back or MFNX this year- or EGRP... Amazingly high growth ( potential) coupled with very little supply. This yields high float turnover. Check it out. Also range. If a stock has a high average true range relative to price and the population, when it pops- it pops more. CANSLIM incorporates most of these concepts. High growth ( C- A). PR or New Products-mgmt- etc ( N). Small capitalization plus big volume demand ( high float turnover)(S) Leader- hot stock in hot market (L) Institutions like it ( good PR - hot item) Market Direction ( M) - go with the flow- surf the wave or you will wipe out. So Nagler and O'Neil and Estes all agree. gonzy that's it- and of course TA of price and volume.

To: big run who wrote (10609)	6/8/1999 2:14:00 AM
From: Richard Estes	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 12039

Not really. I can't say anything is wrong to seek the strongest groups and stock, the logic is there. But IBD provides this info far more effectively then S&P. A ranking method like IBD's would be the way to go. in the short term, I would want to trade the most volatile stocks moving over extended ranges. It wouldn't make much difference what industry they are in. If I did use it more and didn't have access to IBD, I would put a 21 day TS MA on the ratio to capture a 2 month cycle in MSWIN. It would smooth out the whipsaws. QP2 allows a full range of group study with S&P and IRL. I would depend on rankings for the narrowing down process. This could be accomplished in MSWIN or QP2. In reality, I don't know what 80% of the stocks I trade do for a living, I do know what their charts look like and if they are trending or ranging. And where support and resistance stands. Having said that, O'Neil lays out a very effective way of selecting stocks if you feel funnymentals play a role.