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Strategies & Market Trends : Buffettology -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: James Clarke who wrote (1568)	6/8/1999 1:53:00 AM
From: Michael Burry	Respond to of 4691

Let's talk some numbers on MAT Market Cap of combined entity TLC-MAT ($24/share, 436M shares) is $10.5B. Pro Forma earned 0.04/share in 1996, lost 51 cents/share in 1997, and made 36 cents/share in 1998. Long Term Debts of $1.4B, for a LTD/equity of ~0.67. In the best year of the last three, TLC-MAT earned less than 8% on equity. I'm sure there'll be efficiencies squeezed out of this. I still maintain that the TLC acq is more a move MAT was forced into than one it proactively sought. And there are neat franchises within the combined entity. But getting past the feel-good "Barbie is fine" mantra and getting to the numbers, MAT has a lot of proving yet to do, and a decent amount of debt to whittle down. I'll be the first to admit that there's much more to these numbers than meet the eye, but still, other than the franchise, does it really look like a Buffett-like stock? I still do like it, and am optimistic that the stock will jump at the first hint of realized synergies here. But it's not all downhill, and there remains some degree of risk, IMO. Mike

To: James Clarke who wrote (1568)	6/8/1999 12:41:00 PM
From: Investor2	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 4691

Re: "Barbie is fine, as was Nike. As usual, it it Wall Street that is screwed up." I (actually, my grand daughter) can attest that Barbie is fine. I'm currently in the process of shopping for a Barbie bicycle. Best wishes, I2

To: James Clarke who wrote (1568)	6/8/1999 7:34:00 PM
From: Shane M	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 4691

Barbie is fine, as was Nike. As usual, it it Wall Street that is screwed up. Barbie may be fine with the kids, but if the WSJ article is to be believed its the _adult_ collectors who are abandoning the product. Unfortunately I don't have the article to confirm the revenue figures, but estimate revenues MAT recieves on 2 to 3 million units of Holiday Barbie (probably @ $39 retail). Apparently collectors no longer want this doll, and collectors were behind much of the demand for the product. I understand what you're saying for kids though. Barbie is still _the_ doll to have. Shane