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To: Ian@SI who wrote (131627)	6/8/1999 9:35:00 AM
From: edamo	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 176387

ian...ototot re: crude prices rising yes there is a glut, no asia pacific economies warming up won't reduce the glut...why...both malaysia and indonesia are on balance exporters of oil, producing more than enough for their internal consumption. this is first hand knowledge, not something i read in fed propaganda...it's my business....10/97 when the asian economies were collapsing did not the "experts" tout oil drillers/service companies as a hedge...not knowing that the bulk of activity was in the china sea?...i laughed at the thought of such a hedge...we ceased our operations in the area a year earlier...like everyone else did... now they speak of increase in airline fares due to demand...did anyone tell ual that, weak earnings due to overcapacity and price competition! problem as i see it, is the folks who control the numbers and who read the tea leaves are economists...are not in touch with reality...long range predictions never work, too many variables...how many predictions of greenspans 1998 hunphrey hawkins speech came to pass..believe he was off by about 30%.....would you go to a surgeon who missed by 30%?....and the fed is acting as a "surgeon"....