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Biotech / Medical : Sepracor-Looks very promising -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: quidditch who wrote (3257)	6/8/1999 11:34:00 AM
From: Biomaven	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 10280

One possibility on Zyrtec is that SEPR is planning on free riding on the European studies. The big prize is of course the US market, and this way someone else gets to do a lot of the work, while SEPR retains all rights to the US market. Having the ICE already approved (or close to approval) in Europe would give them major leverage with PFE. So my speculation is that SEPR was maybe more concerned with getting to use the results of the trials than in jacking up the European royalty. Peter

To: quidditch who wrote (3257)	6/8/1999 2:37:00 PM
From: David Howe	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 10280

Yes, the royalty is lower than I had expected. On the other hand, Zertec sales are growing at a rate higher than I had estimated. Also, the earnings model had a 50% safety factor to counter the possibility that the Zyrtec ICE might have never made it to market. Now it appears that it will reach the market and the safety factor can be raised. The growth of the product can also be raised and the royalty will be lowered. It's about a wash in the end. Will we get a deal with Pfizer for US rights? That would create another opportunity to revise the model upwards. Dave