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Technology Stocks : Rambus (RMBS) - Eagle or Penguin -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: MulhollandDrive who wrote (22050)	6/8/1999 2:39:00 PM
From: jopawa	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 93625

Wrong! Dispatches from the Front Summer's Little Trades By James J. Cramer 6/8/99 2:05 PM ET URL: thestreet.com "Broadcom's (BRCM:Nasdaq) up 3." "Sell it." "Inktomi's (INKT:Nasdaq) down 2." "Buy it." "IBM's (IBM:NYSE) down 2." "Buy it." And so on. Yep, we are range bound, and when we are range bound, we try to make little trades. Periodically someone will come in with a piece of merchandise for sale -- 200,000 American Home (AHP:NYSE) "in the hole," meaning a slight discount -- and Jeff and I will scratch our heads and try to figure out whether it is enough of a discount to tempt us. It hardly ever is. Sometimes it is just measuring the rhythm, probably some sort of internal process that we all perform. "International Paper's (IP:NYSE) been down for three straight days, what do you say?" "Sounds good. Let's take down some below $50, business is fine." Sometimes it is the urge to do something, and you have to check yourself from trying to snap the ennui through purposeless trading. For example, I wanted to buy some EMC (EMC:NYSE) this morning. But what's my edge? What do I know that is different from when I sold it higher? Other times it is strictly on price. "We said we would let go of Rambus (RMBS:Nasdaq) up here." And we kick it out. Yep, it's the summer, prone to sudden selloffs and amazing rallies on two ticks of a long bond, but mostly prone to, well, nothing. When I traded with my wife on days like this, I'd pester her endlessly about taking some Cisco (CSCO:Nasdaq) or selling some Tellabs (TLAB:Nasdaq). But she'd just give me that sour face and break out the cards in a loud series of shuffles. And I would bet on kings and queens instead of stocks and bonds. And I would lose much less money. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- James J. Cramer is manager of a hedge fund and co-founder of TheStreet.com. At time of publication, his fund was long Cisco, IBM, Inktomi, International Paper and Tellabs. His fund often buys and sells securities that are the subject of his columns, both before and after the columns are published, and the positions that his fund takes may change at any time. Under no circumstances does the information in this column represent a recommendation to buy or sell stocks. Cramer's writings provide insights into the dynamics of money management and are not a solicitation for transactions. While he cannot provide investment advice or recommendations, he invites you to comment on his column at jjcletters@thestreet.com. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- © 1999 TheStreet.com, All Rights Reserved.

To: MulhollandDrive who wrote (22050)	6/8/1999 3:17:00 PM
From: Richard Habib	Respond to of 93625

Betty, at this point with everything I've seen my impression is that there is some fire behind the smoke. I was going to write a bunch of specifics but you follow this stuff as well as I do. Rampant optimism is not a very good investment attitude. Both of us can likely recall, ultra-Bulls who appear on these threads, cheerlead for 6 months or less and then disappear. My guess is most folks on these boards lose money. An example of rampant optimism, Unclewest and Steele's number of $100B for the memory market. The latest forecast I've seen is for about $37B in 2001 and about $40.2B in 2002. A look at the forecasts vs the actual market show that the forecasts have usually be optimistic since prices decline faster than anticipated. At $40B and 50% market penetration, using the usual numbers one comes out with a EPS of $4.82. The problem with PE forecasts that I've seen is that people assume zero expectation built in. I can easily make the case that the 50% for $40B is already factored in, thus the stock could show very little appreciation beyond the rough range it has traded in since the low 100s. Sorry for going beyond your post but the $100B number was so ludicrous that I couldn't help but comment. But the point is that Rambus may be a great trading stock based on the volatility of the Fud battle and a poor long term holding. Rich