To the thread,
Well, we should get some good volume today. In fact, the whole semi sector should rock. Sounds like the big boys are calling a "cyclical" rise. Semi sales are expected to grow at double digit rates for the next two years. The last time we had double digit growth in the semisector as a whole was '95. DSP and other chips that will fuel the new economy in particular should do well.
I'll put up the link to my table pounder post a few weeks ago
Message 9809557
I knew I should have picked up more TI options the same time I picked up the BRCM options yesterday. TI in particular should fly today. INTC should also get a good kick.
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1999 Is the Year of Recovery for the Global Semiconductor Industry Industry Gains Double Digit Growth...
June 9, 1999
REDWOOD CITY, Calif., June 8 /PRNewswire/-- The Semiconductor Industry Association (SIA) today announced that global sales numbers have increased by double digits. The industry has not seen such growth since 1995.
The semiconductor market recovery is being driven by the increasing pervasiveness of the Internet and the exponential increase in e-commerce throughout the world, and from a semiconductor industry perspective, the recovery is being led by the DSP and memory product segments. The global semiconductor market will show recovery in 1999 and double digit growth through 2002.
The overall growth of the semiconductor industry is expected to exceed the 1999 sales of $140.8 billion increasing 12.1 percent and expanding to $162.5 billion increasing 15.4 percent in the year 2000. The market is expected to continue its momentum in 2001 with sales of $191.0 billion increasing 17.6 percent and ending the year 2002 with $215.7 billion of global sales increasing 12.9 percent.
"1999 will be the first double digit year at 12.1 percent growth since the 41.7 percent spurt in 1995," said Wilfred J. Corrigan, LSI Logic chairman and chief executive officer. "In addition, we are pleased to report that this will also be the first year of recovery of the global semiconductor industry that we have seen since 1995."
Corrigan, SIA Oversight Director for the Forecast, presented the mid-year forecast at a luncheon at the Sofitel Hotel in Redwood City. He added that the industry has just emerged from an "unprecedented three-year slowdown. " Corrigan explained that there were several reasons for the three-year decline including over-capacity, the tight inventory management by OEMs, and the Asian economic crisis.
Today, however, the SIA forecast envisions a healthy and growing chip market in 1999 with global sales reaching $140.8 billion and exceeding $215 billion in the year 2002.
The Internet has become the predominate growth driver for the global semiconductor industry and has demonstrated the shift of PC's -- a product which drove the industry in the early 1990's -- to the Internet and e-commerce, seen today as the primary driver of the industry.
The America's market will remain the world's largest in the next four years, representing approximately one-third of the chip revenues worldwide. The Asia-Pacific, or non-Japan markets, will be making a "come back" and will emerge as the second largest chip market worldwide, shedding the effects of the Asian economic crisis that contributed to the 4.4 percent decline of that market last year.
Europe will be right behind Asia-Pacific and has bounced back as a significant player. The Japan market is still being impacted by the protracted domestic recession.
Other highlights of the SIA 1999-2002 forecast:
Discrete Components: Discrete Components, which comprise nearly 10 percent of the global market, will grow at a steady 7 to 8 percent compound annual growth rate during the next four years, amounting to a $16 billion market in 2002. Power transistor sales will consistently exceed the overall discrete growth rate in each of the next four years.
Analog: The global analog market will grow more than 50 percent during the next four years from a $20.7 billion market in 1999 to a projected $32 billion in 2002. The analog market actually declined in size last year, but will return to double digit growth rates next year. The main end-use driver of analog demand is the global move to upgrade telecommunications networks to take advantage of the growth of the Internet and digital telecom technologies.
MOS Logic: The global logic market, which includes standard cell, gate array and PLDs, will grow faster than the worldwide semiconductor industry this year. The overall market will grow from $21.1 billion this year to $31.2 billion in 2002. Particularly noteworthy is the near doubling of the standard cell market from $6.7 billion this year to $12 billion in 2002. At the same time, the gate array market will continue to decline from $2.3 billion this year to $1.9 billion in 2002. The steady 20 percent-plus compounded annual growth rate for standard cell, coupled with the flattening of the gate array market, illustrates the global movement toward "system on a chip" integration.
MOS Micro Devices: This product category, which includes microprocessors, DSPs, microcontrollers and microperipherals, will bounce back from a 1 percent overall market decline in 1998 to nearly 12 percent growth this year. DSPs are currently the industry's fastest growing major product line.
Microprocessors: This category, which achieved a modest 5 percent growth last year in the face of an overall industry decline, will once again "outpace the industry" achieving a 16 percent growth rate this year. In five years, the microprocessor market will nearly double from $23 billion in 1997 to $45 billion in 2002. To be noted, the microprocessor forecast includes not only stand-alone microprocessors, but also embedded microprocessors that are included in system on a chip solutions.
Corrigan added, "The America's market will represent 40 percent of the world's microprocessor revenues, an indication of the PC culture here in the United States."
Microcontroller: The global microcontroller market will experience a comeback from the 4 percent decline of 1998 and is expected to reach a 16 percent gain this year. In the next three years, the microcontroller market will grow approximately 20 percent annually. The global DSP market will more than double in the next four years from $4.3 billion to nearly $10 billion in 2002.
MOS Market: The MOS market, which includes DRAMs, SRAMs, EPROMs and flash, will continue to exhibit its historical volatility in the coming years. The memory market, which declined nearly 19 percent in 1997 and another 21 percent last year, will grow 19 percent this year, 22 percent next year and 27 percent in 2001.
DRAM: "No one segment so clearly demonstrates the volatility and cyclicality of the global semiconductor market than DRAMs," noted Corrigan. He added, "The DRAM market actually declined from nearly $41 billion in 1995 to $14 billion three years later. Now, the market is expected to increase at 25 to 35 percent annually during the next three years.
"The DRAM roller-coaster effect is occurring right now as the segment is expected to decline 24 percent this quarter. Nonetheless, the SIA is expecting the global DRAM market to increase 25 percent this year," said Corrigan.
In closing, Corrigan reviewed the impact of the Internet and e-commerce in the industry. "The greatest growth driver of them all is the rapid public acceptance of the Internet. The volume of Internet commerce is estimated by IDC research to increase from $12 billion in 1997 to more than $400 billion in 2002," said Corrigan. He continued to describe how much of the focus has been on the use of the Internet as seen by the enormous valuations of the "dot com" companies. These valuations are the predictors of the continuation of traffic growth which will demand infrastructure growth. He added, "the electronic highway is paved with silicon chips."
SOURCE Semiconductor Industry Association |
