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Technology Stocks : Micron Only Forum -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: phbolton who wrote (46179)	6/8/1999 6:01:00 PM
From: Skeeter Bug	Respond to of 53903

phb, gruntal is sorry. they say mu will make a dime from ops this q? do you think they believe it enough to bet? NO WAY! the good news is that mu is priced way to high and even these bozos will have to reduce their estimates when they are about a 25 cents off this q and next q is shaping up to be a disaster. dram demand is growing 80-90% per year spurred by massive price cuts. 40% bit growth by all companies per q is a supply / demand ratio of well over 2 to 1. D-I-S-A-S-T-E-R! mu's cash? funny, much of it belongs to muei AND MU CAN'T TOUCH IT! oops, i bet they didn't divide the total cash by mu + (muei owned by mu outstanding ;-) minor oversight of course. stock pimps, pure and simple. is this the work of someone stooopit and inept who doesn't know the basics of anything? or do these folks KNOW EXACTLY what they are doing to manipulate da brain dead?

To: phbolton who wrote (46179)	6/9/1999 1:15:00 AM
From: Fabeyes	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 53903

bottom line is <-.05 for the 1/4 -- is that what you are saying?

To: phbolton who wrote (46179)	6/9/1999 10:30:00 AM
From: Thomas G. Busillo	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 53903

ph, well, we could accentuate the positive and note that Gruntal's "shares outstanding" figure is now "273.0" and not "216.0". I'd say that's minor progress. What's really funny is comparing the language they used in their 4-21-99 Flash Fax on MU with their 5-26-99 note. 4-21-99 "Furthermore, Micron's balance sheet is strong and cash rich, totaling approximately $1.8 billion, almost $8.00 per share, including the Intel investment..." 5-26-99 "Furthermore, Micron's balance sheet is strong and cash rich, totaling approximately $1.8 billion or $6.55 per share." It's amazing what using the generally accepted level of shares outstanding (diluted) can do. It's also amazing what apparently losing the other side of the balance sheet can do (and apparently ignoring key parts of the cash flow statement) - you can use words like "cash rich" and "strong". My personal favorite is the following: Although Micron has declined from its $80.00 high on February 4, 1999, total money flow has demonstrated a strong bullish divergence. This suggests to us that larger investors are buying the stock at the offer price while smaller investors are selling at the bid price. That money flow and bullish divergence stuff - sounds mighty complex. Obviously, a home investor would be unable to piece together that kind of info. A home investor could, however, use the research coming out of Wall Street to get a quick read on institutional ownership. For example 4-21-99 Flash Fax on MU from Gruntal shows "Institutional Ownership: 60%". The 5-26-99 Gruntal comments posted here show "Institututional Ownership: 55%" So "large investors" are buying the stock and yet Gruntal's own would appear to show a 5% decline in institutional ownership? Isn't that a bearish divergence within your bullish divergence? As far as ASP's go, they're a lot less important than margins aren't they? Where's the gross margin estimation? I see four separate references to the string "margin". We believe that this business model will continue to pressure marginal DRAM suppliers... ...current weak prices and their impact on marginal suppliers... Several marginal players are exiting the market... ...marginal players remain in financial turmoil. But where is the word margin as in - gross margin. As in the reason why that 0.10/share EPS figure is so utterly laughable. Does your "blended" ASP figure include the "blend" of DRAM purchased from the JV's in a declining price environment? Wouldn't it be relevant when and how those discounts are negotiated? They do a good job of summarizing the general thesis. I fully see the reasons for optimism. They definitely are there. What I don't see is enough support showing that they have a clue as to when and why that optimism will kick in. Good trading, Tom