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Microcap & Penny Stocks : WCAP - Winfield Capital: Insider buying -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Bo Le who wrote (1054)	6/9/1999 1:23:00 AM
From: Top Jim	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 1305

Bo, do you have any analysis to back up the 15x valuation of CMGI or can you point me in the right direction? Regards, TJ

To: Bo Le who wrote (1054)	6/9/1999 11:46:00 AM
From: Marconi	Read Replies (4) \| Respond to of 1305

Hello Bo Le: I must confess mostly ignorance of CMGI. It looks like hyper internet fluff from a scant viewing. The gigabuck market cap is a tremendous red flag the crazies are out in force, internet style. I view the run in WCAP as a mixture of three effects: a vain hope they are on the inside track for lucrative internet IPO's (no, they have held most of their positions a long time to questionable startups--it was a market bubble effect on internets that propelled them out of the $1 range recently); some people see the P/E reported and think bargain without sufficient evaluation; and lastly, there is the flavor that if there was a run previously, then it justifies a run just like other internet bubbles and that bubble effect should be durable as long as other bubbles are still out there. I think the last seems to reflect your hopes. Certainly one could not rule it out in this market, but counting on dumb money sloshing around durably for the foreseeable future is not a particularly healthy attitude. There is a maxim along the lines that fools and their money are soon parted. The internet bubble rationalization has not been soon enough or efficient enough for my tastes. Money flow into the market continues and people continue to buy because it goes up. When money flows elsewhere or people come to greater sense, the momentum will evaporate from that attitude. Bubbles tend to break faster than they form. There was a flavor in recent months of some reluctance to 'buy the dips' and push new highs in the internet sector. It still does not look like reason has entered that foray. And that flavor has lost its savor. Some day rationalization will come. One of the most notably hilarious commentary on the internets recently (and it may have been Cramer) was that interest rates brought them down some. Non sequiter. I try to take positions in alignment with fundamentals and still take into account the present state of the markets. My instincts tell me there is more downside to WCAP rationalizing to the mid single digits than more crazies running it up as another CMGI. The CMGI analogy is a wonderfully romantic notion. But it remains contingent on predicting that the crazies will en masse push it that way. In my experience, it is nigh impossible to predict the crazies. In fact, it is often healthy to avoid competing with them in any way until they clear themselves out of a situation. Sorry as it is likely to be, a few tens of gigabucks hits to the crazies will sober them up considerably and would be healthy for the market in the long run. If you make out well on the upside, remember to take unusual profits when they come. It is more the norm that profits are not easy to come by, nor quickly. Best regards, m