HERE COMES STEVE FORBES
By DICK MORRIS
JUST when you thought the Republican race for
the presidential nomination was between King
George II and Queen Elizabeth, Steve Forbes
opened with a gambit that could confound the
front-runners.
Texas Gov. George W. Bush and Elizabeth Dole
may lead in the early polls. But Forbes is the only
candidate with access to two key commodities:
ideas and money. Unlike Bush - called W by
party insiders because that is the only name that is
his own - and unlike Mrs. Dole, he has real,
concrete solutions to America's problems. Some
are on the money; some are misguided - but in the
world of the blind, the one-eyed man is king.
And he has money. He practically prints it.
So Forbes has opened the Republican campaign,
brilliantly, by raising the stakes so only he can
afford to play. He has begun a national TV
advertising campaign.
Since he is the sole candidate who is refusing
federal matching money and the limits that come
with it, he is free to spend what he wants, when he
wants, on what he wants. Since it is his own
money, he can spend it without being beholden to
special interests other than himself.
He's using the money very, very wisely. With early
- and presumably heavy - advertising, he is daring
Bush and Dole to match his outlay. His ads, if he
lays them on thick enough, will garner him votes
and increased standing in the national polls.
This will confront the two front-runners with a bit
of a dilemma. If they match him, they will run out
of money. Bush could probably raise pretty much
whatever he wants, but because he is accepting
federal matching funds and limits, he can't spend
more than a bit over $30 million on the race for
the nomination. So if he matches Forbes, he will
bump up against his limit before the first votes are
counted.
On top of it all, Forbes has something to say. He
has a bold plan for saving So-cial Security and a
daring bet on economic growth as the solution to
our problems. His knowledge of economics is, of
course, unchallenged. His only defect is a certain
geekiness which, in the right hands, could be an
asset in this world of blow-dried politicians trying
to live up to Daddy's reputation.
If Forbes wimps out and spends only a few
million, his early gambit won't amount to much. It
will be a straw in the wind. But if he has the guts
to spend $20 million or $30 million on the early ad
campaign, he will by-pass Bush and Dole and will
set himself up as the front-runner.
Because George II has decided to hide out in
Austin for months, Forbes can steal a march on
him through his early advertising just as President
Clinton dismantled Bob Dole while nobody was
looking by quietly beginning his TV advertising at
about this time the year before the election.
Last time out, Forbes could have put the
nomination away at the end, but he chickened out.
After he scored upset victories in Arizona and
Delaware, he should have bought up a year's
worth of ads in the late primary states like
California, Washington, Michigan, Minnesota and
anywhere else where Dole had spent all that he
legally could and was up against the limits of the
federal election law.
Forbes would have been the only candidate on
the air in California. He would have cleaned
Dole's clock in the late races. But Forbes didn't
have the guts or the staying power to re-up his
buy and go for it. Now, hopefully, he has learned
his lesson and is prepared to be sufficiently
ruthless in exploiting his financial and intellectual
advantage.
Will he be seen as ''buying'' the nomination? Not
against two people who inherited their last names.
And not with his ideas and intellectual domination
of this tepid GOP field. Remember that he would
win a IQ test against his mediocre rivals, easy.
Bush seems to believe that the GOP nomination is
his birthright. Annointed by the party
establishment, he is the Republican Walter
Mondale.
Like the Conservative Party in England, the GOP
is a monarchical bunch committed to legitimacy
and royalist succession. But its primary voters
don't see eye to eye with the House of Bush.
Since when did a one-term, failed president who
squandered Ronald Reagan's majority earn the
right to a dynasty?
If a strong candidate communicates directly with
the people and goes over the heads of the party
leaders, there is no telling what will happen.
Will Forbes go all the way? It depends on his
level of courage, intellect, and financial
commitment. But Bush and Dole are two
front-runners who are running on his daddy's and,
in part, her hubby's reputations. Neither one could
even begin to compete if they hadn't had that head
start. Each, to quote a cliche, woke up on third
base and thought they hit a triple.
Forbes can punch through if he keeps at it, runs
the kind of good media he has been putting on
television, and spends enough to bring down the
house of cards of the wanna-be Bush dynasty.
One finds oneself wishing Forbes well, so that we
can establish that the presidency is not an inherited
office nor is it a booby prize to be awarded to the
spouse of the last failed warrior. At least Forbes is
his own man, even if he doesn't quite have his own
last name. |
