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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Lee Lichterman III who wrote (16510)	6/9/1999 6:56:00 AM
From: HairBall	Respond to of 99985

L3: Well the TYX has been bouncing along that upper ascending resistance line as of late. Moving the TYX early AM and moving equities late afternoon have skated around some of the divergences in my reads of the T-Bond rates and equities. (Thus allowing the divergences to be right.) I was expecting the bounce that started last week due to key and multiple support areas pointed out on my BWDIK page on the MDA Web Site Tues 5/26. Then last Sunday I indicated the pull back to resume soon...I expected it begin Monday...late. (Key resistance coming into to play. Not to mention indicator suggestions.) The TYX is in a rising wedge pattern, which portends an eventual retrace of rates. This should present an opportunity for equities to have another leg up. Or, it could happen with a "flight to quality". Determining which is the trick...<g> I suspect we get another leg up, as the many bullish formations on the Indices suggest it. By the end of this week or the first part of next week I we should have the answer. Regards, LG

To: Lee Lichterman III who wrote (16510)	6/9/1999 7:56:00 AM
From: donald sew	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 99985

Lee, Lets see if the 3-DAY pattern works. DAY 1 - STRONG DOWN MOVE DAY 2 - FLAT TO SLIGHTLY UP DAY 3 - STRONG DOWN MOVE Right now the futures are fairly positive, so unless that changes, the open should be positive. If we regain all of yesterday's loss then I would turn bullish, but if the DOW only moves up into the 50-75 point range intraday, then I feel the 3-DAY pattern is still alive. This 3-DAY pattern is common, and a major cause for WHIPSAW for long positions initiated on DAY-2's. The response to my SELL SIGNAL was right on the dime, so that implies a normal standard pullback, not small - not large, for the immediate short-term cycle. If the DOW does move up 50-75 points intraday, I may reinitiate puts again, since I closed some yesterday and play for DAY 3. Frankly, my system is designed to anticipate the move, so it is not linear. What some may not realise, the initial move at a turning point could be 25-50% of the whole short-term swing. seeya

To: Lee Lichterman III who wrote (16510)	6/9/1999 9:00:00 AM
From: Gersh Avery	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 99985

Morning Lee Red fork tines: Upper : 1328.86 (11.51) Mid : 1270.49 (-46.86) Lower : 1212.13 (-105.22) Black fork tines: Upper : 1375.31 (57.96) Mid : 1339.74 (22.39) Lower : 1304.16 (-13.19) Prem values for the day: buy trigger 3.44 fair value 1.18 sell trigger -0.98 Globex opening trigger values: Buy trigger : -51 (1320.79) Sell trigger : -493 (1316.37) 16 day SMA 1311.77 (-5.58 ) 20 day SMA 1322.58 (5.23 ) 36 day SMA 1332.26 (14.91 ) 50 day SMA 1328.48 (11.13 ) To everyone: Sorry I haven't keept up my chart page as well as I should. The forks that I've been watching have been holding the market very well. It'll be ~6/23 before it will be impossible for the SPX to still within both at the same time. Within the confines of the forks the SPX has done very well bouncing off (or stopping momentarily) at the 16,20,36 day simple averages and the fork tines above. Chart is updated for today. Gersh