Just saw the last few seconds of a discussion of digital video recorders on CNBC this morning. Also following is an IDC press release which seems quite bukkish on the technology. As we increasingly see this getting press as an exciting consumer item, it can only benefit the DD companies. I would postulate that only one DD company (guess which one) will really benefit since the commodity manufacturers will merely add more capacity and ruin the party. -Z
www2.cdn-news.com
Digital Video Recorders (DVRs): Coming Soon to a Living Room Near
You, IDC Forecasts
RePlay Networks, TiVo, and Microsoft Leading a Fundamental Change
in TV
Viewing Habits
FRAMINGHAM, Mass., June 8 /PRNewswire/ -- What will be the hot
new
consumer electronics device for the 1999 holiday season and beyond? A
new
product category called digital video recorders (DVR) is poised to
explode
into retail this fall, potentially revolutionizing the way consumers watch
television, according to new research from International Data
Corporation
(IDC).Companies like RePlay Networks, TiVo, Microsoft, and others
are
providing the technology to enable consumers to take greater control
over
television. DVRs not only enable consumers to record desired
programs much
more easily and with better quality than traditional VCRs, but also
enable
users to actually pause live broadcast video and proactively record
programs
based on viewer interests.
"DVR devices are on a constant, individualized programming hunt --
finding
and recording your favorite types of shows 24 hours a day, seven days a
week,
and across numerous channels," said Kevin Hause, program manager for
IDC's
Consumer Devices research program. "This enables consumers to get
significantly more value out of the 60+ channels they already receive, and
may
be the only thing that will give them control of the much-discussed 500+
channels of the future."
The benefit for consumers is monumental, enabling a fundamentally
better
viewing experience. As U.S. households already spend an average of 4.5
hours
per day watching TV, an improved viewing experience is easy to
appreciate and
will appeal to almost everyone. IDC believes this universal appeal will
lead
to fast growth, with DVR-enabled products achieving more than a
million unit
shipments during its second year on the market, and over 10 million unit
shipments in 2004. "DVR products will mirror the rapid adoption of
DVD
players, due to broad consumer interest and little required infrastructure,"
Hause said.
One key factor in the growth of the DVR market will be the integration of
DVR functions into other devices, such as set-top boxes. "As consumer
electronics companies pursue ways to differentiate their products, DVR
features will appear in a broader range of products," Hause said. "DVR
capabilities are especially compelling in products that share some
common
technologies and components, such as satellite set-top boxes and digital
TV
converters."
As the market expands, an entire value chain will arise, creating many
new
opportunities. Possibilities will emerge for technology developers,
component
suppliers, service providers, content creators, hardware manufacturers,
and
retailers. While current technology and components can be leveraged in
this
new market, successful DVR products will require products that are
attuned to
the special needs of the category.
However, the robust growth outlook for DVR-enabled devices and
resulting
change in consumer viewer habits hold implications for network
programmers and
advertisers, who must contend with wider use of time shifting and fight
against advertisement skipping. "While sponsorships, targeted spots, and
more
interactive commercials may offer new advertisement opportunities to
these new
vendors, a backlash is likely from the companies who currently generate
revenues from ad sales," Hause said.
IDC's report, Digital Video Recorders: The Next Big Thing?, reviews the
DVR-enabling technologies, discusses current technology, and examines
OEM
products and business models. The report also provides a comprehensive
outlook for this emerging market, including growth factors, market
opportunities, 10-year forecast estimates for shipments and installed base,
and potential issues that the category will create.
This report is available from IDC's Consumer Devices program. This
program provides market analysis, sizing, and outlook for the full range
of
new consumer device products, including information appliances,
convergence
products, digital TV, digital audio, DVD players, gaming devices,
consumer
PCs, and more. Analysis is based on extensive primary and secondary
research,
conducted by a team of experienced market experts.
To order a copy of Digital Video Recorders: The Next Big Thing?,
contact
Cheryl Toffel at 1-800-343-4952, ext. 4389 or at ctoffel@idc.com. For
more
information about IDC's Consumer Devices program, contact Patrick
Gorman at
508-935-4369 or at pgorman@idc.com. Additionally, IDC's Web site
(http://www.idc.com) contains company information and recent news
releases, as
well as full-text searching of the latest available research.
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