Victory for Sukarno's daughter
By Tim Dodd and Greg Earl, Jakarta
Mrs Megawati Soekarnoputri, daughter of Indonesia's first president, is the clear winner of Indonesia's first democratic poll in 44 years, possibly with enough momentum to carry her through to the presidency.
But it is unclear whether the important second position under the proportional voting system is held by the ruling Golkar party, or the National Awakening Party (PKB) of Mrs Megawati's friend and ally, Mr Abdurrahman Wahid.
But Golkar sources said yesterday the party was reasonably happy with its performance, which still left the Golkar presidential candidate, the incumbent, Dr B.J. Habibie, as a viable challenger to Mrs Megawati for the top job.
The official vote count is proceeding very slowly, with only 3 per cent counted by late yesterday.
The best figures are coming from two unofficial vote counting bodies, the Independent Committee for Election Monitoring (KIPP) and the Antara news agency, which had both tallied about one-fifth of the 116 million votes cast by last night.
Both organisations reported that Mrs Megawati is a clear winner, with her Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle (PDI-P) taking nearly 40 per cent of the vote. But Antara put Golkar second with 22 per cent, while KIPP put it third with only 15 per cent. Antara's figures are compiled from the official tallies made in regional centres, while KIPP's come from the reports of its 150,000 volunteers, who monitored polling booths.
The difference between the figures leaves the level of Golkar's strength in the new parliament uncertain. The key political battle will be fought in November, when the parliament, augmented by 200 representatives from provincial parliaments and community groups, will elect the new president.
Golkar can look to alliances with the Muslim parties, and possibly the army, to support President Habibie. Its main ally might be the United Development Party (PPP), which is winning about 10 per cent of the vote, and possibly the Muslim wing of Dr Amien Rais's National Mandate Party (PAN).
The lack of information from the General Election Commission has led to opposition parties raising suspicions that vote manipulation is occurring.
Mr Abdurrahman, better known by his nickname, "Gus Dur", in Indonesia, said on Tuesday night that he would consider setting up an alternative emergency government if evidence of vote rigging by Golkar was found.
Yesterday a spokesperson for Gus Dur, Ms Ratih Hardjono, said there was definitely a strangeness in the slowness of reporting, given that counting had been completed in most of the country.
Parties are also making their own claims about their performance, based on observations by their scrutineers. Golkar claimed yesterday that it was winning 34 per cent of the vote, compared with 42 per cent for Mrs Megawati.
Antara's vote tally found a major divide between Indonesia's most populous island of Java, and the outer islands. Mrs Megawati is supported strongly in Java, but Golkar, very unpopular in the major Javan cities, is retaining its strength on outer islands where economic conditions are better and pressure for reform is not as strong.
In winning about 40 per cent of the vote, Mrs Megawati withstood a strong Muslim campaign against her party which was mounted in the days before Monday's election. It cited the lack of Muslim candidates in her party, and the campaign has been widely attributed to the allies of President Habibie.
The result is likely to leave Gus Dur in a powerful powerbroker role, as his support will be crucial to Mrs Megawati's chances of becoming president. He also played a key role in keeping the support of his 30 million strong conservative Muslim organisation, the Nahdlatul Ulama, behind political reform.
The election has dealt a severe blow to Dr Amien Rais, whose PAN party is holding only about 7 per cent of the vote. Dr Amien, who had the highest international profile of the opposition leaders, will be relegated to a minor role unless he can use PAN's parliamentary members to deliver the presidency to either Mrs Megawati or President Habibie.
His support suffered from PAN's narrow support base among the urban middle class. The party is also split between its secular and Muslim wing, which could cause Dr Amien further problems.
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