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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: j g cordes who wrote (16552)	6/9/1999 12:02:00 PM
From: HairBall	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 99985

jg cordes: Before the rotational correction started in April, I laid out a rough scenario as to how I thought that would occur. I expect the leading issues that shouldered most of the rise in their respective Indexes (NDX/COMPX, DOT and DOW Indices) to have investors moving out and seeking perceived safer issues. IE: Previously out of favor Dow Index issues, small and mid cap issues (RUT), bonds and some in cash. I did not expect as much movement to the previously out of favor Dow issues as occurred. I really expected more of a stabilizing effect in the Dow Indexes with some lift. But much more rotation into previously out of favor Dow issues occurred than expected. Now...I am expecting a reverse of what just occurred. That would cause rates to rise as bonds are sold off to rotate monies back into some of the previous leaders. Then eventually the TYX will honor the rising wedge it "WAS" in and rates would begin a retrace. This would then set the stage for a rally in unison of all the Indices. I was hoping for more of correction before this occurred. I was expecting my NYA-COMPX Composite chart to move back into its 25-year rising trading channel. I think this would have been much healthier for the Market than a move up from above the upper trend line of that channel. Demonstrating even more exuberance. If the Market makes a new leg up from above that channel, I suspect it may be a blow off top and will portend a much nastier fall in the not too distant future. Of course, I could be completely wrong. That is why I am waiting for confirmation of the above expectation by a break above the upper trend lines of the bullish formations on my charts. OR breaches in the opposite direction to negate the expectation. I hope that makes my expectation clear... Regards, LG Disclaimer: My posts are my opinions only and I reserve the right to be wrong on occasion. Do not base any investment decision solely on anyone's views or analysis. Do your own research and take responsibility for your own investment decisions.