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Strategies & Market Trends : Value Investing -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: TwoBear who wrote (7510)	6/9/1999 9:35:00 PM
From: Shane M	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 78661

TwoBear, No offense taken at all. I am well aware of the image problem that manufactured housing has. Despite the image (which I think is exagerated), I don't think it's an undesireable customer group to target. So many of the housing companies now are showing incredible growth and the market perception is that its got to reverse itself. Like auto makers at peak earnings the multiples look cheap. Today I was looking at recent explosive numbers for Toll Brothers and Beazer. Backlog for both is strong. I own Champion and also like Jim's Clayton. I've been reading "The Roaring 2000s" by Dent this week and the book lays out a demographic case for strong economic growth for another decade based on the spending habits of the various age groups in the population. He points out a couple of housing segments that look particularly attractive. As baby boomers enter the empty nest and retirement phase he expects to see demand for second homes and retirement homes grow. Second, as all of the boomer kids begin entering the housing market he sees increasing demand for starter homes. He does see difficulty in the existing home market and expects appreciation of homes in the suburbs to slow. This is based primarily on his view that people are going to want to live and work where homes currently aren't. Communication technology is expected to allow more people to live and work farther from the cities, and the tax base of the suburbs is expected to erode. I don't know that I buy it all, but certainly the demographic spending habits presented in the book are persuasive in pointing to a strong economy for another decade. *Off topic** No, I'm not a religious Cat fanatic. I follow when I can catch them on TV and that's about it. Depending on when you were at Vandy, you might remember my brother who played for the Vandy Basketball team. Bryan Milburn. 6' 7" power forward. Was a good rebounder and defender, but not a big scorer. He was there in the early to mid 90s and was on the SEC championship team. Shane