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To: A. A. LaFountain III who wrote (46198)	6/9/1999 2:29:00 PM
From: Thomas G. Busillo	Respond to of 53903

Tad, it also seems like an amazing coincidence that their "new" absolute number for 1999 global DRAM would just so happen to equal 25% growth. Their November forecast had the following: DRAM chips, the largest segment of the memory market, will end 1998 as a $12.9 billion market --- a 34.8 percent decline from 1997 sales. The SIA forecast calls for a strong sales recovery in 1999 as DRAM revenues grow 25 percent to $16 billion. In 2000 and 2001, the DRAM market should grow 28 percent and 35 percent, respectively, with sales approaching $28 billion in 2001. semichips.org And now they're projecting 25% DRAM growth in 1999. But if the actual CY98 number was $14.1 bil. v. the $12.9 bil. projection back in November, then their new 1999 total must be $17.625 v. the $16.125 bil. 25% on $12.9 implies. Again, I find it amazing that after the type of price erosion we've seen that their "new" absolute number 5 months into 1999 would just happen to give a 1999 growth rate EXACTLY equal to that forecast back in November: 25%. Almost raises the question of which came first, the growth rate or the number that the growth rate keys off of <g> Best Regards, Tom