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Technology Stocks : Orckit (ORCT) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Peter Kerling who wrote (1817)	6/13/1999 1:58:00 PM
From: savolainen	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 1998

[expectations] greetings germany for what its worth, believe we are way out on the risk curve with these two companies (orct and awre).. 3 to 5 years is several lifetimes for xdsl... don't think anyone would even venture to give a read that far out... only the bravest (or most foolish) will publish ballpark estimates for year after next (2001)... and believe those are wild guesses.. that being said, near term both companies seem to have expectations built into their current share price... orct is expected to make a profit in q4 of this year... and many think that aware "owns" g.lite technology or at least stands to control much of that market.. --- don't know how closely you follow orct or awre, but altho the two companies are playing in the same xdsl arena, the two have very different business plans... while awre still sells product, my impression is that moving forward their business plan seems to be based primarily on the licensing of their technology (currently primarily g.lite )... relative to orct, they will probably see greater margins on a much smaller revenue stream... on the other hand, orct's business plan depends primarily on the selling of actual product along with their strategic partners (tho there is a silicon royalty angle to orct) ... overall margins will probably never be higher than the 30-40 % range, but revenues could be on the rather large side if they are successful.. --- orct q1 99 rev= $14.6 million yahoo consensus orct estimated eps: yr/dec 99: -0.99 yr/dec 00: 0.60 biz.yahoo.com yr/dec 01 eps >2.00 NBMO: "we believe that Orckit could earn well over $2.00 in 2001" particularly like that "well over" part... ;).. tho maybe a bit overly optimistic... Message 9049253 NBMO on ORCT: a good read "Our revised and quarterly estimates for FY 1999 follow: Previous Estimates 2Q99 3Q99 4Q99 FY99 Revenue (MM) $18.0 $26.2 $36.2 $94.6 EPS/Loss per share ($0.35) ($0.18) $0.10 ($0.81) Revised Estimates 2Q99 3Q99 4Q99 FY99 Revenue (MM) $18.0 $26.2 $36.2 $95.0 EPS/Loss per share ($0.35) ($0.27) $0.08 ($0.92)" Message 9012772 fwiw believe the key to the orct near term estimates above will be the acceptance/performance of the new orct/fujitsu keywave adsl silicon... if it performs as promised and is on schedule (starting to ship in product to dt and gte in q3) - in all likelihood orct will be in the black q4... risk is that should there be problems/delays, instead of diminishing losses leading to profits, we could well be looking at accelerating losses... note that revenues are projected to double between q2 and q4 of this year (dt ramping up) which is a very good thing if they are making $ but not such good news if the result is simply a doubling of losses ... note that currently there are ...16,905,000 shares outstanding for orct -- awre q1 99 rev= $4.3 million yahoo consensus awre estimated eps: yr/dec 99: 0.16 yr/dec 00: 0.37 biz.yahoo.com believe the two components to awre's licensing are upfront payments and royalties based on sales per chip by the licensor... very near term (including recent past) would think revenues are bumping due to the upfront payments (g.lite chip sales to date are negligable)... should g.lite not really ramp up til the second half of 00 as some are predicting... and if more new licensees don't come on board.. am guessing awre might have trouble getting to .37 for 00... note that currently there are ...23,372,593 shares (diluted) outstanding for awre til later s